NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	5.1 [794]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +13.2%
San Antonio Spurs	96		Comeback	1.8 [990]		LVP	Marcus Morris (DET): -10.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	7	71%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	10	87%	0.24	6	-0.14	3	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	9	48%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jon Leuer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.03	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	13	40%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Marcus Morris	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	11	18%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	4	111%	0.19	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.00	0.00	16	66%	0.11	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	7	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	18	44%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	3	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	14	47%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	29%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	28.4	15.4	21.0	2.5	34.3	128.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.0%

DET -9.4%

SAS +7.0%

SAS +8.8%

SAS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	16.6	14.8	98.9	110.3	107.7
season	15.0	15.4		105.0	110.1
opponent	14.8	15.1		103.7	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.5	15.3	18.3	13.1	16.5
SAS	13.2	17.5	17.7	18.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	26	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-11	12	16.2	16.6	-0.36	18.7	15.7	2.97
Andre Drummond	59	59	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-4	-2	16.5	16.4	0.13	17.2	15.4	1.86
Ish Smith	54	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-1	-8	16.6	16.3	0.24	16.9	16.1	0.78
Tobias Harris	56	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-5	0	15.9	17.6	-1.71	17.5	15.0	2.52
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.15	-3	-7	4	16.4	16.7	-0.22	16.4	17.8	-1.46
Beno Udrih	33	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-9	8	16.3	16.6	-0.24	16.1	16.9	-0.78
Aron Baynes	28	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-6	2	16.4	16.5	-0.13	15.4	17.2	-1.86
Marcus Morris	55	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.04	-13	3	-16	18.7	12.7	5.95	15.1	19.3	-4.21
Jon Leuer	52	52	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	0	-10	15.0	18.7	-3.69	16.6	16.7	-0.06

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	67	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	17.2	14.7	2.49	16.3	17.1	-0.80
Patty Mills	49	49	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	5	0	15.6	18.0	-2.45	16.2	16.9	-0.68
Manu Ginobili	31	29	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	4	2	14.4	17.9	-3.47	17.2	16.1	1.09
Kyle Anderson	43	44	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	0	10	17.6	15.7	1.85	16.9	16.0	0.86
Pau Gasol	63	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	9	-8	16.7	16.5	0.11	17.6	13.7	3.89
Jonathon Simmons	32	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	7	-4	16.5	16.7	-0.24	15.4	17.2	-1.80
David Lee	31	30	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	8	-6	15.5	17.2	-1.77	15.9	16.8	-0.84
Kawhi Leonard	66	66	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	11	-12	17.2	14.7	2.51	16.8	15.6	1.20
Dewayne Dedmon	11	11	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.01	5	5	0	16.7	16.6	0.12	14.9	16.7	-1.80
Tony Parker	36	36	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.02	3	7	-4	18.2	15.5	2.78	17.5	15.8	1.74
Davis Bertans	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	8	-6	13.5	16.7	-3.19	5.5	16.7	-11.24
Dejounte Murray	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	8	-6	13.5	16.7	-3.19	5.5	16.7	-11.24
Bryn Forbes	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	8	-6	13.5	16.7	-3.19	5.5	16.7	-11.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
IND 95, NYK 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1	94.2%
OKC 86, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%