NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	5.8 [644]		MVP	Andre Miller (CLE): +8.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	92		Comeback	1.7 [285]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -30.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.03	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	17	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mario Elie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	7	33%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	7	56%	0.01	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.32,-0.32,-0.3,-0.28,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.20	-0.13	-0.03	20	45%	-0.07	8	-0.23	7	71%	-0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	15	61%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	21	56%	0.13	5	-0.13	6	100%	0.02
Pete Chilcutt	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.04	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	7	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	12	48%	0.02	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	27.0	14.8	26.0	1.6	31.4	126.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +22.1%

CLE +6.3%

CLE +10.7%

CLE +12.7%

SAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CLE	NBA	SAS	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	16.5	15.2	87.1	100.0	101.7
season	15.5	14.1		101.6	98.0
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.5	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	14.8	14.8	14.1	14.7
CLE	16.5	17.2	14.0	18.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Elie	39	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-9	7	14.8	14.6	0.22	16.1	16.8	-0.71
Steve Kerr	22	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-9	7	14.1	14.8	-0.69	18.6	15.8	2.78
David Robinson	74	73	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-9	7	14.7	14.4	0.37	17.7	11.7	5.98
Antonio Daniels	21	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	17.7	13.8	3.94	16.7	16.4	0.27
Jerome Kersey	51	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	15.0	14.3	0.69	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Avery Johnson	62	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.20	-1	-10	9	14.1	15.8	-1.76	16.5	16.5	0.01
Jaren Jackson	42	41	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-6	1	14.3	15.0	-0.69	16.9	16.2	0.72
Malik Rose	24	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-1	-9	14.8	14.6	0.22	12.4	17.9	-5.50
Terry Porter	42	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.05	-11	0	-11	14.2	15.1	-0.91	15.7	17.2	-1.55
Tim Duncan	88	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.18	-10	-1	-9	14.6	16.6	-2.04	16.6	15.0	1.56

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Bryant	75	77	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	-2	15	16.3	17.2	-0.86	14.5	15.5	-1.01
Lamond Murray	76	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-4	19	15.9	19.4	-3.58	14.6	14.7	-0.10
Wesley Person	81	83	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	-1	13	16.1	19.0	-2.86	14.5	15.7	-1.16
Danny Ferry	39	37	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	3	5	16.3	16.6	-0.39	15.3	14.2	1.09
Andre Miller	63	65	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	3	5	16.4	16.7	-0.26	14.6	14.7	-0.12
Andrew DeClercq	21	21	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.12	0	11	-11	17.0	16.3	0.68	15.1	14.5	0.62
Brevin Knight	49	47	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	12	-13	17.6	15.2	2.38	15.1	14.2	0.98
Shawn Kemp	53	56	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	9	-7	17.0	15.7	1.32	14.3	15.2	-0.96
Pete Chilcutt	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	13	-15	18.3	16.4	1.92	10.5	14.8	-4.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, NYK 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,0.99,1,1	95.4%
NOH 84, MIA 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
DET 101, NJN 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	94.1%