NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	6.1 [617]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +18.2%
Utah Jazz	98		Comeback	1.3 [682]		LVP	CJ Miles (UTA): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.19	0.03	0.04	20	70%	0.22	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	10	73%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	14	72%	0.22	4	-0.11	11	73%	-0.02
James Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	4	100%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.07	-0.02	16	41%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	79%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	19	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	12	67%	0.11	3	-0.09	3	0%	-0.06
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	13	55%	0.11	3	-0.11	12	75%	0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	62%	0.13	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.02	11	33%	-0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	33.3	13.7	25.1	2.6	30.3	130.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.2%

UTA -19.0%

MIA +10.3%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	17.0	14.4	15.5	120.7	107.7	105.7
season	16.0	15.9		109.0	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.6		108.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.3	15.8	17.4	17.5	17.0
UTA	14.6	15.5	13.9	13.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	78	78	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.13	18	-5	23	17.2	15.8	1.46	14.6	13.6	0.96
Chris Bosh	73	73	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.10	19	-6	25	17.6	14.8	2.75	14.9	12.6	2.35
Mario Chalmers	49	49	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.12	16	-3	19	16.3	17.8	-1.44	14.5	14.4	0.15
Erick Dampier	42	39	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.12	11	2	9	17.5	16.6	0.88	14.3	14.5	-0.19
James Jones	29	28	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.10	8	5	3	16.3	17.3	-1.04	15.7	13.9	1.79
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	50	52	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	11	-9	16.6	17.5	-0.88	14.5	14.3	0.19
Joel Anthony	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	13	-13	1.0	17.2	-16.20	11.0	14.5	-3.48
LeBron James	77	76	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	13	-13	17.1	16.8	0.26	13.8	17.5	-3.62
Carlos Arroyo	43	42	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	16	-19	17.8	16.3	1.44	14.4	14.5	-0.15
Juwan Howard	18	17	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	19	-25	15.6	17.4	-1.75	12.6	14.9	-2.20

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	11	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-13	13	15.3	14.3	0.95	14.4	17.4	-3.02
Paul Millsap	78	78	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.03	0	-13	13	14.0	16.8	-2.81	17.1	16.5	0.62
Raja Bell	71	74	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.20	5	-18	23	14.1	15.6	-1.55	17.5	15.1	2.44
Ronnie Price	9	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-7	1	16.9	14.2	2.72	15.0	17.2	-2.21
Francisco Elson	19	21	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	15.7	14.1	1.64	16.3	17.2	-0.95
CJ Miles	33	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.04	-14	1	-15	14.7	14.3	0.45	16.7	17.2	-0.55
Deron Williams	80	81	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	0	-13	14.3	15.3	-0.95	17.4	14.4	3.02
Andrei Kirilenko	76	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	2	-17	14.4	14.4	0.05	16.7	18.6	-1.99
Al Jefferson	78	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	0	-13	14.4	14.5	-0.12	17.4	15.0	2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.34,0.48,0.33,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 128, WAS 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.9%
DET 93, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.5%
CHA 108, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.4%