NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	6.8 [411]		MVP	Jerome Williams (DET): +21.5%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	1.8 [708]		LVP	Oliver Miller (TOR): -14.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.11	-0.03	12	69%	0.25	1	-0.04	5	40%	0.00
Grant Hill	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.01	17	56%	0.15	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Joe Dumars	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles O'Bannon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	11	36%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	9	28%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	-0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	22	36%	-0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.02	-0.03	18	58%	0.19	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	69%	0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Kempton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	20	55%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.02	3	-0.08	10	80%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	11	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	9	30%	-0.06	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Oliver Miller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	3	20%	-0.07	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	24.4	17.8	25.2	2.5	29.6	129.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +14.3%

DET +0.5%

DET +16.1%

DET +11.6%

DET +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	17.1	16.1	15.6	106.9	96.5	102.5
season	15.9	15.5		102.8	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.9		108.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.7	16.6	16.9	19.9	17.1
TOR	14.4	17.8	14.4	19.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	51	47	0.60	-0.09	0.69	0.19	14	-4	18	17.2	17.1	0.11	16.8	15.4	1.38
Aaron McKie	27	26	0.48	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	1	8	18.7	16.4	2.31	17.3	15.6	1.67
Charles O'Bannon	54	50	0.45	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	2	6	17.4	16.7	0.68	16.5	15.6	0.86
Grant Hill	78	76	0.44	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	2	6	16.8	20.3	-3.55	16.4	14.4	1.97
Bison Dele	75	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	4	2	17.2	16.7	0.46	16.4	14.8	1.61
Malik Sealy	16	17	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.05	5	5	0	17.4	17.1	0.35	15.3	16.3	-1.05
Joe Dumars	26	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.00	3	7	-4	17.5	17.0	0.45	15.3	16.5	-1.21
Don Reid	8	9	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	8	-6	18.5	17.0	1.49	15.8	16.2	-0.40
Theo Ratliff	37	41	-0.06	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	14	-18	17.1	17.2	-0.02	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Lindsey Hunter	63	63	-0.07	0.58	-0.64	-0.04	-1	11	-12	16.2	19.6	-3.36	15.3	18.3	-3.01

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	50	48	0.26	-0.77	1.03	0.00	9	-19	28	15.2	17.4	-2.20	16.4	18.1	-1.73
Tim Kempton	6	6	-0.12	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-5	0	22.8	15.6	7.20	9.2	17.7	-8.57
Marcus Camby	53	54	-0.21	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-7	4	15.8	16.8	-1.00	16.6	18.1	-1.47
John Wallace	70	70	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.23	0	-10	10	16.0	16.9	-0.98	17.4	16.2	1.14
Reggie Slater	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.00	-16	6	-22	16.1	16.2	-0.09	17.0	17.4	-0.41
Damon Stoudamire	86	87	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	0	-10	16.1	0.0	16.14	17.1	0.0	17.15
Oliver Miller	66	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.27	-9	-1	-8	16.0	16.5	-0.47	18.4	12.8	5.51
Shawn Respert	43	47	-0.73	0.22	-0.95	-0.26	-16	6	-22	17.3	15.0	2.23	17.7	16.5	1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%
MIL 91, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.0%
NOK 100, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.8%