NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	5.7 [699]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +29.4%
Toronto Raptors	100		Comeback	2.0 [799]		LVP	Sonny Weems (TOR): -12.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.05	-0.01	9	75%	0.20	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
DeJuan Blair	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.08	0.06	21	67%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.04	0.03	11	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Neal	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	69%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Matt Bonner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	11	52%	0.12	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.03
Richard Jefferson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	46%	0.01	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.11
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	15	53%	0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.10	-0.01	20	69%	0.29	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.02	0.04	18	58%	0.06	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Julian Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	16	54%	0.06	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	9	44%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	3.4	26.4	15.7	33.2	2.7	29.2	132.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.0%

SAS +1.9%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +1.3%

TOR -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	16.3	15.2	15.5	120.7	109.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.1		109.3	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		111.2	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	17.0	14.6	18.3	16.3
TOR	15.2	15.1	15.4	15.1	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	40	39	0.75	-0.25	1.01	-0.01	26	-15	41	15.2	17.1	-1.88	16.1	14.6	1.47
Manu Ginobili	60	60	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.24	14	-3	17	15.0	18.7	-3.72	15.2	15.2	-0.03
DeJuan Blair	69	69	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.22	14	-3	17	16.6	15.2	1.45	15.1	15.5	-0.32
George Hill	70	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	4	3	16.6	15.0	1.60	15.1	15.6	-0.54
Tim Duncan	48	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	5	1	16.1	16.5	-0.37	16.6	13.7	2.86
Matt Bonner	33	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	6	-1	15.2	16.8	-1.64	15.3	15.2	0.07
Steve Novak	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	23.7	15.9	7.83	9.0	15.5	-6.49
Chris Quinn	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	11	-11	21.0	16.2	4.79	0.0	15.2	-15.21
Tony Parker	59	60	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	18	-25	17.2	14.6	2.58	15.0	15.5	-0.52
Tiago Splitter	30	30	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.06	-3	14	-17	15.9	16.5	-0.58	14.0	15.8	-1.80
Richard Jefferson	46	46	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	18	-25	17.0	15.5	1.48	14.9	15.5	-0.55

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	69	71	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.05	5	-16	21	14.9	16.2	-1.34	16.5	15.6	0.83
Julian Wright	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-11	11	0.0	15.2	-15.21	7.0	16.4	-9.36
Alexis Ajinca	2	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-10	9	20.0	15.1	4.90	7.0	16.5	-9.47
Jose Calderon	77	76	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-14	17	15.2	15.4	-0.18	16.9	13.4	3.42
Amir Johnson	70	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-8	5	15.7	13.7	2.00	16.2	16.4	-0.17
Andrea Bargnani	72	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-5	-1	15.2	15.4	-0.20	16.7	14.5	2.25
Jerryd Bayless	14	16	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	3	-17	15.4	15.2	0.18	13.4	16.9	-3.42
Sonny Weems	65	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	0	-11	15.6	14.2	1.48	16.4	16.0	0.38
Ed Davis	34	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	1	-13	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.3	16.8	-1.53
Leandro Barbosa	52	53	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.15	-16	5	-21	14.6	16.0	-1.34	16.4	16.0	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0	94.4%
PHI 92, SAC 80	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.31,0.43,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
LAC 114, POR 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.8%