NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	128		Excitement	7.2 [401]		MVP	Antoine Walker (MIA): +20.3%
Washington Wizards	113		Comeback	1.4 [521]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -11.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.12	-0.01	17	62%	0.26	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.08	0.07	17	62%	0.23	2	-0.07	21	86%	0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	15	65%	0.21	4	-0.09	13	46%	-0.05
Alonzo Mourning	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Posey	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Wayne Simien	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.04	3	67%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	10	42%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.23	-0.06	0.02	29	65%	0.26	3	-0.10	14	93%	0.05
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	9	54%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	4	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.03	0.04	15	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.03
Awvee Storey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	19	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	62%	0.02
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	23%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	35.4	15.7	33.5	2.5	34.6	146.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +77.8%

WAS -24.3%

MIA +10.2%

WAS -9.0%

WAS -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	13.5	14.5	15.6	123.1	110.8	104.4
season	15.5	15.1		106.1	107.4
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	13.7	12.3	14.7	13.5
WAS	14.0	15.1	13.0	16.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	67	66	0.66	-0.16	0.83	-0.01	23	-8	31	13.3	14.0	-0.72	14.3	14.7	-0.32
Dwyane Wade	87	88	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.09	19	-4	23	13.6	13.3	0.26	14.4	15.1	-0.71
Antoine Walker	61	60	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.12	16	-1	17	13.3	13.8	-0.48	14.5	14.4	0.05
James Posey	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	7	1	14.0	12.4	1.55	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Shaquille O'Neal	63	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	6	3	13.5	13.5	0.04	14.8	14.0	0.77
Alonzo Mourning	38	38	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	10	-5	13.4	13.5	-0.10	14.4	14.5	-0.11
Jason Kapono	9	7	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.03	3	12	-9	14.1	13.5	0.66	16.6	14.3	2.27
Wayne Simien	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	14.0	13.5	0.50	9.0	14.6	-5.63
Udonis Haslem	65	64	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.10	3	12	-9	13.4	13.8	-0.42	14.6	14.2	0.36
Jason Williams	55	52	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.09	-12	27	-39	13.4	13.6	-0.16	14.6	14.3	0.32

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Awvee Storey	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	9.0	14.6	-5.63	14.0	13.5	0.50
Donell Taylor	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	9.0	14.6	-5.63	14.0	13.5	0.50
Jared Jeffries	63	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-13	11	15.2	13.2	2.03	13.7	13.2	0.54
Brendan Haywood	33	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-11	7	15.4	14.0	1.42	13.5	13.5	-0.04
Antawn Jamison	78	77	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	-8	1	14.0	15.8	-1.79	13.5	13.4	0.09
Michael Ruffin	16	17	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	-5	-5	14.6	14.4	0.19	12.8	13.7	-0.89
Gilbert Arenas	91	91	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-6	-3	14.2	16.7	-2.54	13.5	13.8	-0.30
Etan Thomas	61	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-7	-1	14.2	14.9	-0.66	13.9	12.9	0.96
Caron Butler	93	95	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	-5	-5	14.2	17.0	-2.78	13.4	14.7	-1.27
Chucky Atkins	44	44	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	-4	-7	13.9	14.9	-0.93	12.6	14.1	-1.51
Antonio Daniels	25	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.10	-12	-3	-9	17.2	13.6	3.68	14.4	13.2	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 111, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.52,0.54,0.34,0.48,0.33,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.02,0,0,0	93.9%
DET 93, TOR 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.43,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0	93.7%
MIN 90, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.41,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.1%