NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	7.8 [276]		MVP	Eric Maynor (OKC): +18.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	106		Comeback	1.7 [826]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -26.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Scalabrine	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	13	56%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Kyle Korver	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
CJ Watson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.09	0.03	12	62%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.08
Luol Deng	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	13	41%	-0.03	4	-0.09	6	33%	-0.04
Derrick Rose	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.26,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.06	-0.21	-0.01	31	42%	-0.26	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.08	0.00	3	100%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.06	0.02	15	65%	0.20	3	-0.05	13	92%	0.08
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	57%	0.06	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.07	0.03	17	49%	-0.05	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.04
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	24	49%	0.09	6	-0.20	13	85%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.0	3.4	33.3	19.8	31.9	3.0	38.2	159.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +13.2%

OKC +47.5%

CHI -20.6%

OKC +10.1%

CHI -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	OKC	NBA	CHI	OKC	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	15.5	94.1	107.1	105.7
season	15.7	15.0		106.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		105.4	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	13.1	14.4	14.3	14.0
OKC	13.9	15.7	14.4	15.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	76	74	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-17	23	13.9	14.4	-0.44	15.0	14.0	0.99
Brian Scalabrine	22	21	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-10	9	13.6	14.1	-0.50	15.8	14.5	1.31
Omer Asik	7	6	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-9	7	12.0	14.2	-2.18	12.8	14.9	-2.07
Kurt Thomas	6	6	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	-5	-1	13.7	14.1	-0.39	16.0	14.7	1.30
CJ Watson	38	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-1	-9	13.9	14.1	-0.26	13.7	15.4	-1.75
Derrick Rose	63	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-10	9	14.1	13.9	0.26	15.4	13.7	1.75
Ronnie Brewer	34	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	1	-13	13.0	14.6	-1.55	13.9	15.2	-1.35
Taj Gibson	68	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	-4	-3	14.7	12.7	1.98	14.7	14.9	-0.13
Joakim Noah	81	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-8	5	14.3	13.1	1.16	14.8	14.8	-0.08
Kyle Korver	31	32	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	13.8	14.1	-0.28	15.2	14.6	0.70
Luol Deng	79	75	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	0	-11	14.2	13.5	0.68	14.5	15.5	-0.95

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	65	67	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.14	20	-9	29	14.5	15.4	-0.88	14.2	13.7	0.53
Kevin Durant	86	87	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.14	15	-4	19	14.5	16.5	-2.03	13.9	15.0	-1.13
Thabo Sefolosha	51	51	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	4	3	14.9	14.6	0.34	14.3	13.8	0.53
Jeff Green	81	82	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	7	-3	14.8	14.5	0.34	14.4	12.6	1.79
Russell Westbrook	71	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	8	-5	14.9	14.6	0.29	14.2	13.7	0.47
Eric Maynor	28	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	3	5	14.6	14.9	-0.29	13.7	14.2	-0.47
Daequan Cook	37	38	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	8	-5	15.5	14.3	1.22	13.4	14.4	-1.02
James Harden	42	45	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	7	-3	14.3	15.1	-0.77	14.0	14.1	-0.13
Nenad Krstic	34	34	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	20	-29	15.4	14.5	0.88	13.7	14.2	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 95, HOU 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.91,1,1	92.7%
NJN 101, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	92.4%
LAC 100, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.42,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.78,0.98,1,1	92.3%