NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	7.6 [286]		MVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): +17.1%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	1.9 [693]		LVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (HOU): -24.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	19	70%	0.22	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.06
Mike Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.01	13	54%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Don Reid	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	12	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	20	53%	0.12	5	-0.18	3	67%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	4	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Monty Williams	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	5	25%	-0.10	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.08	0.00	14	66%	0.17	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0	0.00	-0.11	0.05	-0.06	13	53%	0.13	6	-0.13	6	67%	0.00
Dan Langhi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moochie Norris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	20	62%	0.07	3	-0.09	15	80%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.12	0.02	16	44%	-0.12	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	31.8	16.0	26.2	1.7	30.0	133.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +19.0%

HOU +8.4%

HOU +25.6%

ORL -2.2%

ORL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	16.3	15.5	101.1	110.5	100.9
season	14.6	16.3		101.6	104.6
opponent	14.9	15.8		102.1	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.3	12.3	16.7	14.7	14.1
HOU	15.5	15.4	15.3	19.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	38	36	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.02	8	-18	26	13.0	14.9	-1.85	17.1	15.8	1.29
Don Reid	16	16	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-13	16	12.1	14.6	-2.49	16.7	16.3	0.50
Monty Williams	40	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	-3	-4	13.8	14.4	-0.57	16.1	16.5	-0.42
John Amaechi	20	22	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-2	-6	15.2	13.8	1.43	14.5	16.9	-2.33
Darrell Armstrong	75	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-10	10	14.4	12.9	1.48	16.5	15.9	0.55
Troy Hudson	19	20	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	0	-10	12.9	14.4	-1.48	15.9	16.5	-0.55
Tracy McGrady	87	87	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-9	8	14.4	11.0	3.38	16.1	18.4	-2.23
Mike Miller	61	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	2	-14	14.0	14.4	-0.41	16.8	15.5	1.21
Michael Doleac	56	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	14.1	14.2	-0.18	16.6	15.9	0.75
Bo Outlaw	58	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	2	-14	15.1	12.6	2.55	16.1	16.7	-0.60

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	76	75	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	1	8	15.9	17.9	-1.95	14.5	12.8	1.68
Walt Williams	32	32	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.12	15	-5	20	17.4	15.8	1.61	14.2	14.1	0.14
Cuttino Mobley	95	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	16.3	0.0	16.34	14.1	0.0	14.13
Maurice Taylor	95	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	16.3	0.0	16.34	14.1	0.0	14.13
Steve Francis	80	79	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	7	-4	16.8	13.9	2.93	14.5	12.2	2.29
Moochie Norris	15	15	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	3	4	13.9	16.8	-2.93	12.2	14.5	-2.29
Dan Langhi	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.06	2	8	-6	24.0	16.3	7.74	0.0	14.3	-14.28
Shandon Anderson	62	61	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	17	-24	15.7	17.6	-1.94	14.3	13.8	0.52
Kelvin Cato	19	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.13	1	9	-8	17.9	15.9	1.95	12.8	14.5	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.53,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.98,1	95.7%
NJN 92, CLE 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.84,0.84,0.91,1,1	92.8%
CHI 95, OKC 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.98,1,1	92.7%