NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	4.1 [976]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +11.1%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	1.1 [1016]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -11.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joey Graham	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	77%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Nene	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.09	2	-0.04	12	67%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.05	16	71%	0.15	5	-0.14	6	67%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	16	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	14	34%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.03	0.04	10	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.00	0.01	13	72%	0.16	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.01	0.07	17	67%	0.17	2	-0.06	17	94%	0.04
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	11	45%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.6	31.2	16.5	24.4	2.5	33.5	133.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.1%

DEN -0.4%

DAL +0.1%

DAL +13.5%

DAL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.3	102.2	117.2	106.0
season	14.4	15.2		110.3	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.6	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.8	15.3	17.1	11.5	15.5
DAL	14.1	16.0	17.1	16.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	37	37	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.19	10	-26	36	13.5	16.8	-3.35	18.5	14.1	4.46
Johan Petro	7	9	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-18	20	10.1	15.9	-5.77	17.9	15.6	2.28
Chris Andersen	35	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-18	20	15.2	15.6	-0.44	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Joey Graham	48	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-20	24	13.8	17.3	-3.47	16.9	14.7	2.18
Anthony Carter	6	6	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-11	6	14.5	15.5	-1.04	14.0	16.0	-1.95
Malik Allen	24	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	-7	-2	19.4	14.1	5.36	14.5	16.3	-1.85
J.R. Smith	66	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-11	6	14.5	18.1	-3.65	15.7	16.2	-0.55
Arron Afflalo	39	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-9	2	15.7	15.3	0.47	16.5	15.2	1.31
Carmelo Anthony	67	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.13	-21	5	-26	17.0	11.3	5.68	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Chauncey Billups	63	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.20	-25	9	-34	16.2	13.8	2.38	14.4	19.0	-4.59
Nene	63	65	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.17	-26	10	-36	15.8	14.8	0.99	15.2	17.2	-2.03

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	67	66	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.22	29	-13	42	14.6	19.1	-4.51	16.4	13.0	3.35
Jason Kidd	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.09	23	-7	30	14.9	19.8	-4.90	15.9	13.6	2.32
Dirk Nowitzki	72	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.10	20	-4	24	15.9	15.7	0.21	15.8	14.1	1.73
Shawn Marion	55	54	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	3	10	14.9	17.2	-2.34	17.3	12.8	4.53
Caron Butler	69	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	4	8	16.5	14.0	2.52	15.5	15.3	0.27
Rodrigue Beaubois	29	29	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	19	-22	16.9	15.4	1.50	14.2	16.1	-1.91
Jason Terry	48	49	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.08	-2	18	-20	16.5	15.1	1.35	13.5	17.8	-4.25
Eduardo Najera	23	22	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	20	-24	16.3	15.7	0.69	14.4	15.8	-1.40
DeShawn Stevenson	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	18.6	15.7	2.93	8.7	15.8	-7.03
Matt Carroll	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	17	-18	18.6	15.7	2.93	8.7	15.8	-7.03
Erick Dampier	17	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	22	-28	19.3	15.1	4.24	14.7	15.6	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 102, MIN 120	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DET 98, CHA 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CLE 91, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.92,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.0%