NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	5.4 [727]		MVP	Nicolas Batum (POR): +27.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	109		Comeback	1.4 [1123]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -11.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	-0.02	-0.00	14	70%	0.20	3	-0.10	12	83%	0.04
Amir Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	62%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	7	100%	0.15	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.02	13	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	11	46%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.23	0.09	0.04	9	105%	0.29	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.01	16	51%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	8	63%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	11	55%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	21	47%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	12	48%	0.02	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.0	28.0	15.7	26.2	2.5	36.3	132.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -3.3%

POR +17.8%

POR +10.3%

POR +19.7%

POR +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	POR	NBA	TOR	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	19.0	15.3	116.7	131.3	106.0
season	15.0	16.7		109.6	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.3	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	16.7	15.7	15.1	15.5
POR	20.6	18.4	18.6	18.5	19.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	40	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-13	15	14.1	16.9	-2.79	18.3	19.6	-1.26
DeMar DeRozan	44	44	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-14	17	14.6	16.5	-1.94	19.2	18.7	0.49
Jarrett Jack	39	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-13	15	15.4	15.7	-0.28	19.2	18.8	0.38
Reggie Evans	8	7	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	0	-11	16.7	15.4	1.34	14.1	19.4	-5.28
Antoine Wright	16	17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	-2	-7	17.4	15.1	2.27	18.6	19.1	-0.49
Sonny Weems	40	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-3	-5	15.2	15.8	-0.55	18.1	19.8	-1.70
Chris Bosh	64	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-7	3	15.8	14.6	1.23	19.8	15.9	3.82
Hedo Turkoglu	59	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	-4	-3	16.1	14.3	1.79	19.9	16.9	2.94
Jose Calderon	54	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	3	-17	15.5	15.6	-0.15	18.5	19.9	-1.47
Andrea Bargnani	56	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-2	-7	16.1	14.5	1.61	19.1	18.7	0.44

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-3	17	19.2	18.0	1.16	15.9	13.7	2.19
Andre Miller	56	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-1	13	19.7	17.6	2.11	15.6	15.3	0.31
Nicolas Batum	55	54	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	2	7	18.9	19.1	-0.25	15.6	15.3	0.31
Marcus Camby	62	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	2	7	19.2	18.4	0.80	15.4	16.1	-0.74
Brandon Roy	67	68	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.12	6	5	1	19.4	17.3	2.06	15.1	17.2	-2.04
Rudy Fernandez	35	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	9	-7	18.7	19.1	-0.40	15.3	15.7	-0.43
Martell Webster	9	9	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	6	-1	17.4	19.2	-1.72	18.8	15.1	3.63
Jerryd Bayless	27	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	12	-13	17.6	19.7	-2.11	15.3	15.6	-0.31
Juwan Howard	34	35	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	12	-13	18.2	19.5	-1.25	15.1	15.9	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.8,0.94,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, MIL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.95,1	94.9%
BOS 82, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.93,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%
MIL 112, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	93.7%