NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	6.2 [570]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +14.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	1.7 [787]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -28.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.01	13	62%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	11	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Ben Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	9	32%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	4	20%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28	-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	27	33%	-0.18	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.00	14	75%	0.19	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	19	49%	0.07	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	10	65%	0.12	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	10	43%	-0.02	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	3	25%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	7	19%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.3	2.2	26.5	15.4	21.6	2.4	34.4	122.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +32.9%

DET -1.8%

MIL +16.7%

MIL +2.3%

DET -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.6	91.1	98.9	102.3
season	15.7	15.3		101.9	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.8		105.1	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.1	14.3	17.0	16.2	15.9
MIL	13.9	17.0	17.2	16.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeljko Rebraca	19	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.05	-9	2	-11	14.9	16.1	-1.17	16.5	16.0	0.54
Corliss Williamson	29	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-6	5	16.1	15.7	0.40	17.5	15.4	2.16
Michael Curry	55	54	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.11	-4	-3	-1	16.2	15.3	0.95	16.2	16.1	0.08
Damon Jones	33	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.32	17.4	15.4	1.99
Jon Barry	37	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.09	-5	-2	-3	15.5	16.1	-0.60	16.3	16.0	0.26
Chucky Atkins	57	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-5	3	16.0	15.7	0.32	15.4	17.4	-1.99
Clifford Robinson	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.32	-1	-6	5	15.8	16.5	-0.77	16.3	15.2	1.08
Jerry Stackhouse	67	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-4	1	15.9	15.8	0.05	15.9	16.6	-0.68
Ben Wallace	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.24	-5	-2	-3	16.0	15.3	0.67	15.3	19.5	-4.19

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	46	45	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-7	21	16.0	16.3	-0.27	15.8	16.0	-0.22
Sam Cassell	66	67	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-3	13	16.0	16.6	-0.61	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Glenn Robinson	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.33	5	2	3	15.5	18.0	-2.45	16.3	14.7	1.58
Anthony Mason	76	76	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	4	-1	16.5	14.2	2.27	15.8	16.3	-0.50
Tim Thomas	45	43	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	0	7	16.1	16.2	-0.13	16.0	15.7	0.30
Ray Allen	69	70	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.29	-3	10	-13	16.3	15.5	0.86	16.0	15.2	0.79
Michael Redd	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	5	-3	18.0	15.5	2.45	14.7	16.3	-1.58
Darvin Ham	20	20	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	6	-5	14.8	16.5	-1.65	15.1	16.1	-0.99
Joel Przybilla	38	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	11	-15	16.3	16.0	0.22	16.5	15.4	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 98, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.92,0.83,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.82,0.8,0.94,0.99,1,1	94.9%
MIL 112, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1	94.1%
MIL 87, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.94,0.98,1	93.8%