NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	107		Excitement	6.9 [416]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +25.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	113		Comeback	1.5 [1105]		LVP	Thabo Sefolosha (OKC): -8.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	9	72%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	12	63%	0.14	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Beno Udrih	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	9	68%	0.18	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Joey Dorsey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ime Udoka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean May	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.00	17	53%	0.08	4	-0.16	17	76%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.12	0.13	-0.00	26	61%	0.34	3	-0.09	12	100%	0.07
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	19	61%	0.22	3	-0.09	11	82%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.00	10	65%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	10	64%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	30.4	16.8	24.4	2.5	36.5	141.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +1.2%

OKC +4.4%

OKC +24.7%

OKC +14.6%

OKC +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	OKC	NBA	SAC	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.3	115.1	122.8	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		103.7	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.0		103.1	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.7	14.4	16.1	15.1	15.8
OKC	14.4	15.0	15.9	16.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean May	30	29	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.09	10	-16	26	16.9	15.3	1.61	16.1	15.0	1.09
Joey Dorsey	15	14	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.03	6	-12	18	14.5	16.0	-1.48	14.2	15.6	-1.35
Donte Greene	49	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-8	10	15.6	16.0	-0.47	15.0	15.7	-0.73
Ime Udoka	2	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-4	2	4.5	16.0	-11.52	3.0	15.5	-12.49
Dominic McGuire	6	5	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-1	-4	13.2	16.0	-2.79	12.0	15.6	-3.55
Francisco Garcia	57	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-7	8	15.3	16.5	-1.23	15.1	15.7	-0.60
Omri Casspi	36	38	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	4	-14	15.6	15.9	-0.36	15.8	15.1	0.69
Tyreke Evans	74	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-3	0	16.0	14.9	1.11	15.6	14.5	1.09
Beno Udrih	69	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.28	-8	2	-10	16.2	14.5	1.66	15.4	15.1	0.32
Carl Landry	67	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	3	-12	16.1	14.8	1.29	15.5	14.9	0.61
Spencer Hawes	60	61	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.28	-12	6	-18	15.8	15.8	-0.02	15.5	15.2	0.30

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	58	58	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.08	21	-15	36	15.2	15.7	-0.50	15.2	16.7	-1.46
Jeff Green	79	79	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-8	22	15.5	14.4	1.13	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Kevin Durant	80	81	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.19	16	-10	26	14.9	18.7	-3.80	15.9	15.2	0.70
Russell Westbrook	81	82	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-8	22	15.1	17.1	-1.97	15.7	16.4	-0.67
Thabo Sefolosha	65	67	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-6	18	15.5	15.0	0.51	15.0	17.7	-2.61
Nick Collison	40	40	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.23	-13	19	-32	15.4	15.3	0.12	17.1	14.7	2.41
Eric Maynor	11	11	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	14	-22	17.1	15.1	1.97	16.4	15.7	0.67
Serge Ibaka	13	14	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.12	-11	17	-28	17.3	15.0	2.27	16.1	15.7	0.35
James Harden	33	33	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.19	-15	21	-36	15.4	15.4	0.01	16.4	15.4	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.76,0.84,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, SAS 120	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.64,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.93,1,1	94.1%
IND 86, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.59,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.95,0.96,1	92.9%
MIA 79, CHH 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.85,1	92.8%