NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	79		Excitement	6.9 [422]		MVP	Brian Grant (MIA): +14.7%
Charlotte Hornets	83		Comeback	1.2 [654]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -19.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	17	67%	0.15	0	0.00	15	87%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	5	75%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don MacLean	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	7	17%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	7	14%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	13	50%	-0.06	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.19	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.19	-0.10	-0.08	0.02	13	39%	-0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	11	71%	0.19	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.02	18	68%	0.17	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Baron Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	14	60%	0.10	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.04
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.16	0.00	-0.02	7	14%	-0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	13	23%	-0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.0	36.4	15.6	24.2	2.8	34.4	139.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +46.8%

MIA -2.6%

CHH +7.9%

MIA -6.6%

CHH +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	16.6	15.7	15.5	88.8	93.3	100.9
season	16.3	15.8		98.4	99.7
opponent	15.6	16.1		97.0	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	16.5	17.9	17.2	16.6
CHH	12.4	16.2	19.9	15.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Robinson	2	2	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-6	8	5.5	16.9	-11.37	15.0	15.8	-0.76
Don MacLean	22	22	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-5	6	14.0	17.5	-3.42	13.9	16.3	-2.43
Anthony Carter	40	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-9	14	15.2	17.8	-2.58	15.8	15.7	0.08
Duane Causwell	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	0	-4	17.8	16.3	1.50	12.5	16.7	-4.18
Bruce Bowen	37	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.20	2	-6	8	16.8	16.5	0.24	17.3	14.5	2.79
Todd Fuller	25	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-3	2	18.2	16.0	2.14	19.1	14.5	4.58
A.C. Green	13	12	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	6	-16	20.3	16.0	4.32	15.7	15.7	0.01
Tim Hardaway	72	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-5	6	16.3	18.0	-1.71	15.7	16.1	-0.39
Brian Grant	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-3	2	16.4	17.9	-1.56	16.0	14.2	1.81
Eddie Jones	57	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.31	-5	1	-6	17.2	15.6	1.65	16.0	15.2	0.79
Anthony Mason	59	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	3	-10	17.1	15.6	1.54	14.4	18.5	-4.07

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	66	65	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-7	18	15.1	17.7	-2.58	17.4	14.5	2.96
Baron Davis	78	79	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.33	9	-5	14	15.6	16.9	-1.33	16.9	14.3	2.61
Jamal Mashburn	71	70	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-3	10	15.0	18.7	-3.74	16.4	17.4	-1.02
David Wesley	82	83	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.35	7	-3	10	15.5	19.0	-3.54	16.8	13.7	3.16
P.J. Brown	52	54	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.15	13	-9	22	14.7	17.3	-2.62	17.4	15.4	2.01
Eddie Robinson	39	38	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.24	-6	10	-16	17.7	14.2	3.43	16.8	16.5	0.35
Jamaal Magloire	23	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.05	-7	11	-18	17.7	15.1	2.58	14.5	17.4	-2.96
Eldridge Recasner	18	16	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	12	-20	17.7	15.2	2.48	14.1	17.2	-3.12
Otis Thorpe	16	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.01	-6	10	-16	17.9	15.3	2.68	14.4	17.1	-2.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 100, HOU 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.69,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	93.8%
ATL 97, SAS 99	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	93.6%
MEM 88, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.63,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.84,1	93.4%