NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	5.1 [783]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +9.5%
Chicago Bulls	85		Comeback	2.7 [297]		LVP	Tyrus Thomas (CHI): -14.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.02	-0.05	11	59%	0.10	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	14	76%	0.22	6	-0.12	5	100%	0.01
Eric Maynor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	7	37%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	24	55%	0.11	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	6	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	-0.01	-0.04	12	54%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	11	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	8	19%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	17	39%	-0.06	4	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.05	0.07	20	46%	-0.08	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	12	28%	-0.08	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.4	25.5	15.7	21.2	2.4	31.4	123.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +70.8%

OKC +1.8%

CHI -13.7%

CHI -10.0%

OKC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	CHI	NBA	OKC	CHI	NBA
this game	15.8	14.5	15.3	103.2	89.5	106.0
season	15.0	14.7		106.2	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.5		103.9	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.8	15.8	14.5	19.5	15.8
CHI	14.5	14.2	17.4	11.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	57	57	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-3	19	16.5	14.8	1.67	15.1	13.6	1.49
Russell Westbrook	87	87	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-1	15	16.1	12.5	3.65	14.7	12.0	2.70
Kevin Durant	75	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	3	7	15.1	18.8	-3.75	14.4	14.8	-0.41
Nenad Krstic	37	38	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	5	3	14.0	17.0	-2.97	14.5	14.5	-0.00
James Harden	53	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	8	-3	16.3	15.2	1.13	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Thabo Sefolosha	57	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	12	-11	15.6	16.3	-0.70	14.7	14.1	0.57
Jeff Green	29	29	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	13	-13	15.2	16.1	-0.86	14.5	14.5	0.06
Eric Maynor	37	38	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	12	-11	17.0	15.1	1.94	13.1	15.4	-2.37
Serge Ibaka	43	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.19	10	3	7	16.4	15.4	1.05	15.0	14.0	0.96

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	14	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-14	15	15.1	14.4	0.70	18.4	15.3	3.05
Taj Gibson	56	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-16	19	13.2	16.4	-3.20	16.0	15.7	0.30
Joakim Noah	64	62	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-12	11	13.9	15.6	-1.74	16.0	15.6	0.36
Kirk Hinrich	85	84	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-13	13	14.0	18.5	-4.50	16.5	10.8	5.68
John Salmons	47	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.01	-12	-1	-11	15.8	13.2	2.56	15.1	16.5	-1.37
Derrick Rose	74	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	14.4	14.8	-0.37	15.2	18.1	-2.89
Brad Miller	29	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	1	-15	16.3	13.7	2.69	15.0	16.2	-1.25
Tyrus Thomas	39	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	3	-19	16.4	13.2	3.20	15.7	16.0	-0.30
Luol Deng	67	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	3	-19	13.9	15.9	-2.06	15.9	15.8	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 87, MIN 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.6%
HOU 107, CHA 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
TOR 97, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0	93.9%