NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Excitement	5.8 [636]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +16.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	94		Comeback	2.2 [415]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -16.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.09	0.07	0.00	22	57%	0.19	2	-0.02	12	92%	0.04
Nenad Krstic	0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	10	71%	0.13	1	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	16	62%	0.14	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	58%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	46%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	11	25%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	16	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	71%	0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	23	38%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	21	40%	-0.01	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.06	0.04	9	57%	-0.04	3	-0.07	3	0%	-0.08
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.01	0.04	16	36%	-0.13	2	-0.03	12	58%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	3.4	29.6	16.4	26.4	3.5	40.5	145.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +43.0%

OKC +8.5%

OKC +0.5%

MEM -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.3	112.1	101.1	106.0
season	15.0	15.4		106.2	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.5	16.7	18.2	13.8	15.5
MEM	17.8	14.6	14.5	16.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	51	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-1	10	15.8	15.2	0.61	16.8	14.5	2.26
Kevin Durant	77	80	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	1	6	15.5	15.4	0.19	15.7	16.0	-0.25
Russell Westbrook	70	72	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	5	-2	15.2	16.4	-1.19	15.8	15.6	0.28
James Harden	44	45	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	3	2	16.0	15.0	1.02	14.7	16.8	-2.12
Serge Ibaka	17	19	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	0	8	13.5	16.0	-2.52	16.6	15.6	1.00
Jeff Green	80	80	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	10	-12	15.8	13.6	2.14	15.9	15.2	0.73
Thabo Sefolosha	61	61	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.08	3	5	-2	15.1	16.4	-1.37	15.4	16.5	-1.14
Nick Collison	33	34	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.09	5	3	2	15.5	15.5	0.05	15.9	15.7	0.11
Shaun Livingston	22	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	6	-4	16.5	15.2	1.24	15.5	15.9	-0.35

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	15	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-4	0	10.8	16.7	-5.94	12.8	16.0	-3.12
Zach Randolph	73	72	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-11	14	17.1	11.0	6.03	16.0	13.7	2.32
Mike Conley	75	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-9	10	15.8	15.9	-0.13	15.3	16.3	-0.94
Marc Gasol	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-10	12	16.6	12.8	3.74	16.1	12.8	3.38
Hasheem Thabeet	13	13	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	0	-8	13.4	16.2	-2.79	14.8	15.6	-0.87
Jamaal Tinsley	18	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	1	-10	15.9	15.8	0.13	16.3	15.3	0.94
Sam Young	42	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	1	-10	14.7	16.7	-1.95	13.9	16.7	-2.74
Rudy Gay	80	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	0	-8	15.7	16.0	-0.25	15.5	15.4	0.19
O.J. Mayo	76	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	0	-8	15.8	15.8	0.02	15.8	14.1	1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.25,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.26,0.11,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, LAL 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.42,0.3,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.13,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0	91.9%
ATL 87, NOH 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.04,0.06,0,0,0	91.7%
CHI 116, PHX 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.44,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	91.6%