NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	87		Excitement	6.2 [581]		MVP	Ronald Murray (ATL): +21.8%
New Orleans Hornets	79		Comeback	2.6 [187]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -12.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.04	0.14	-0.04	10	58%	0.24	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.02	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.06	0.01	21	55%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	6	92%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	38%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Acie Law	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	14	39%	-0.00	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.03	-0.03	15	63%	0.22	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	8	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	3	90%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
David West	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	0.05	13	54%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	13	31%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.3	29.5	15.7	23.4	2.6	30.3	126.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +36.9%

NOH -10.5%

ATL +14.4%

ATL +5.3%

ATL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	NOH	NBA	ATL	NOH	NBA
this game	16.7	17.2	15.5	102.4	92.9	106.4
season	15.8	16.6		106.7	105.9
opponent	15.6	16.1		106.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.5	15.8	16.9	17.7	16.7
NOH	19.5	15.5	15.8	18.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	68	68	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.31	13	-5	18	17.4	13.7	3.74	17.7	14.9	2.81
Ronald Murray	46	45	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	1	6	16.4	17.1	-0.66	17.0	17.4	-0.49
Marvin Williams	59	58	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	2	4	16.5	17.2	-0.72	16.3	19.1	-2.76
Joe Johnson	64	65	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	4	0	17.0	15.9	1.05	17.1	17.4	-0.34
Maurice Evans	31	31	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	5	-2	16.7	16.7	0.08	17.6	17.0	0.62
Acie Law	19	20	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.01	7	1	6	16.1	16.9	-0.76	20.6	16.1	4.46
Al Horford	62	61	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	6	-4	15.8	19.0	-3.16	16.4	19.2	-2.87
Zaza Pachulia	26	27	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	5	-2	17.2	16.5	0.72	19.1	16.3	2.76
Mike Bibby	50	50	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	13	-18	16.9	16.4	0.45	16.1	18.7	-2.59

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	23	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-8	8	18.9	16.5	2.36	16.5	16.8	-0.24
Devin Brown	15	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-7	6	15.9	17.5	-1.52	16.2	16.8	-0.62
Chris Paul	65	64	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.24	6	-14	20	16.6	19.0	-2.37	17.1	15.4	1.74
Morris Peterson	36	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-4	0	15.8	18.2	-2.45	16.7	16.7	0.06
Peja Stojakovic	67	68	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-10	12	16.3	20.7	-4.41	16.9	15.8	1.09
David West	66	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-4	0	17.8	14.9	2.95	16.8	16.4	0.32
James Posey	49	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-4	0	18.2	15.8	2.45	16.7	16.7	-0.06
Mike James	20	21	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	6	-20	19.0	16.6	2.37	15.4	17.1	-1.74
Tyson Chandler	62	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	0	-8	16.5	18.9	-2.36	16.8	16.5	0.24
Rasual Butler	22	21	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.15	-13	5	-18	18.9	16.6	2.32	16.1	16.9	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.04,0.06,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 128, WAS 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	92.5%
NOK 100, IND 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.3%
IND 87, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.23,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0	92.1%