NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	102		Excitement	6.9 [410]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +27.5%
Indiana Pacers	91		Comeback	1.1 [865]		LVP	A.J. Price (IND): -11.6%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.10	0.15	-0.02	21	56%	0.29	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.03	12	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Dante Cunningham	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	4	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.05
Andre Miller	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.02	12	54%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Martell Webster	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.01	9	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	11	45%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	63%	0.10	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	14	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	9	40%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	20%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	32.2	15.6	25.4	2.6	29.0	132.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +51.0%

POR +8.5%

IND -17.8%

POR +6.8%

POR +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	IND	NBA	POR	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	14.2	15.3	108.5	96.8	106.0
season	16.7	14.2		108.8	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.6		105.3	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.0	15.0	15.5	18.2	16.4
IND	15.0	13.3	15.1	13.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	71	69	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.14	16	-5	21	16.9	14.9	2.02	14.3	14.0	0.33
Joel Przybilla	57	56	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.11	16	-5	21	16.7	15.9	0.74	14.4	14.0	0.45
LaMarcus Aldridge	75	76	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.15	13	-2	15	16.8	14.6	2.21	14.2	14.6	-0.45
Steve Blake	75	73	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	1	9	17.0	14.1	2.87	14.1	14.6	-0.48
Andre Miller	50	49	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	3	5	15.8	17.1	-1.35	14.8	13.7	1.11
Jerryd Bayless	29	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	12	-13	15.3	16.9	-1.57	13.2	14.7	-1.52
Juwan Howard	39	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	13	-15	15.0	17.4	-2.34	14.9	13.8	1.07
Martell Webster	57	60	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	11	-11	16.1	16.8	-0.69	14.4	14.0	0.34
Dante Cunningham	17	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	16	-21	16.6	16.4	0.24	12.6	14.6	-2.02

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Price	33	33	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.04	7	-18	25	14.9	13.9	0.98	15.1	17.1	-2.01
Tyler Hansbrough	45	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-11	11	14.4	14.1	0.38	15.4	17.3	-1.91
Mike Dunleavy	43	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.00	-1	-10	9	14.3	14.2	0.02	15.7	17.0	-1.27
Roy Hibbert	36	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-7	3	13.7	14.6	-0.80	16.2	16.5	-0.23
Brandon Rush	44	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-3	-5	14.3	14.2	0.10	17.1	15.7	1.38
Luther Head	40	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-10	9	14.8	13.8	0.97	15.2	17.2	-1.99
Jeff Foster	38	38	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-5	-1	14.9	13.8	1.18	16.0	16.6	-0.62
Dahntay Jones	61	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	1	-13	13.8	15.0	-1.16	17.1	15.1	1.96
Troy Murphy	69	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.20	-12	1	-13	14.0	15.0	-0.97	17.3	13.8	3.48
T.J. Ford	61	61	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.14	-18	7	-25	13.9	14.9	-0.98	17.1	15.1	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.23,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 89, DET 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.52,0.37,0.14,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.2%
HOU 86, MEM 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.33,0.21,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	93.2%
SAS 89, CHI 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	92.9%