NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	107		Excitement	6.5 [493]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +38.8%
Houston Rockets	111		Comeback	1.3 [501]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -10.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.36	0.33	0.13	0.10	20	79%	0.44	3	-0.08	13	100%	0.06
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	16	77%	0.18	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	9	56%	0.11	2	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Martell Webster	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.07
Steve Blake	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	8	22%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.27,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.23	0.17	0.02	17	77%	0.45	2	-0.06	9	67%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	16	76%	0.29	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.02
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	11	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	37%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	27.8	15.8	26.2	2.4	48.5	145.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +37.9%

POR -3.7%

HOU +10.3%

POR -1.5%

HOU +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	HOU	NBA	POR	HOU	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	15.3	120.2	124.7	106.0
season	16.7	15.0		108.8	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.6		106.1	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.4	16.7	18.9	13.1	16.9
HOU	14.0	16.0	16.2	15.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	48	47	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-5	6	17.0	16.7	0.27	15.0	16.1	-1.07
Martell Webster	28	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.09	-6	2	-8	17.2	16.7	0.58	16.0	15.3	0.76
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-12	20	16.9	16.8	0.03	16.1	12.7	3.41
Joel Przybilla	39	38	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	2	-8	18.7	15.4	3.36	13.8	16.8	-2.95
Travis Outlaw	40	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-2	0	16.0	17.6	-1.60	14.9	16.0	-1.01
Greg Oden	37	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	1	-6	17.2	16.6	0.62	17.2	14.1	3.08
Brandon Roy	77	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-2	0	16.4	19.7	-3.25	16.0	12.8	3.23
Andre Miller	44	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	2	-8	16.3	17.4	-1.06	15.1	16.0	-0.89
Rudy Fernandez	61	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-2	0	16.7	17.3	-0.63	14.9	16.6	-1.65

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Landry	52	49	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.42	9	-5	14	14.7	16.6	-1.82	16.1	17.7	-1.63
Trevor Ariza	78	79	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-2	8	15.6	15.2	0.37	17.1	15.3	1.75
Kyle Lowry	63	62	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.38	3	1	2	15.0	16.8	-1.79	15.9	19.1	-3.24
Aaron Brooks	72	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	2	0	14.8	18.4	-3.52	16.7	17.6	-0.91
Shane Battier	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	15.9	14.5	1.40	16.0	19.3	-3.36
Charles Hayes	47	48	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	4	-4	16.8	14.0	2.81	18.3	15.1	3.21
Chase Budinger	19	19	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	3	-2	14.7	15.7	-0.98	15.2	17.3	-2.16
Luis Scola	31	33	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	3	-2	16.6	14.9	1.75	19.7	15.2	4.52
David Andersen	16	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	6	-8	16.2	15.4	0.83	17.9	16.6	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.89,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 87, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
TOR 84, ATL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1	93.6%
PHI 98, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.92,1	93.4%