NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	87		Excitement	5.7 [670]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +15.0%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	1.2 [1140]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -18.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	15	56%	0.03	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
Chauncey Billups	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Posey	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
George McCloud	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Roy Rogers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.02	24	52%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	0.05	11	54%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.07	-0.04	10	18%	-0.12	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.05

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	10	90%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.07	0.06	9	95%	0.20	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.03
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	15	45%	-0.03	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	16	45%	-0.04	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	27.3	15.7	25.3	2.5	26.2	123.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.1%

SAS +11.4%

SAS +21.4%

DEN -17.5%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	16.9	15.2	98.9	120.5	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		101.5	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.0		95.9	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.0	14.9	14.7	17.8	15.8
SAS	14.6	16.3	19.6	17.4	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	25	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-20	21	16.6	15.6	1.00	16.5	17.0	-0.47
Roy Rogers	10	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-14	9	16.9	15.7	1.19	14.6	17.2	-2.58
Nick Van Exel	66	67	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.21	-12	-7	-5	15.5	16.9	-1.36	16.1	19.3	-3.15
James Posey	49	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.19	-12	-7	-5	15.4	16.4	-0.98	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Antonio McDyess	64	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	-11	3	15.9	15.7	0.18	17.8	14.5	3.31
Ryan Bowen	24	24	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-8	-11	3	14.0	16.5	-2.47	18.6	16.2	2.39
George McCloud	39	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-12	5	16.4	15.4	0.98	17.5	16.4	1.08
Raef LaFrentz	53	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.18	-18	-1	-17	16.1	15.5	0.54	15.6	19.0	-3.38
Chauncey Billups	26	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	-12	5	17.8	15.0	2.74	18.5	16.2	2.29
Ron Mercer	84	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	0	-19	15.5	22.7	-7.24	17.0	15.2	1.79

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	82	82	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.05	20	-1	21	17.0	15.8	1.13	16.1	12.3	3.76
Terry Porter	47	49	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	1	17	17.3	16.4	0.84	16.3	15.3	0.96
Avery Johnson	72	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.10	20	-1	21	16.8	17.3	-0.52	16.4	13.2	3.24
Jaren Jackson	54	55	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	2	15	16.5	17.5	-1.00	15.4	16.5	-1.08
Samaki Walker	32	33	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	8	3	17.4	16.6	0.82	17.1	15.1	2.00
Malik Rose	62	61	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	12	-5	16.5	17.8	-1.25	14.8	18.1	-3.33
Chucky Brown	37	34	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	17	-15	16.9	16.9	-0.04	16.4	15.5	0.93
Antonio Daniels	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	18	-17	14.0	17.0	-2.95	14.0	15.9	-1.88
Mario Elie	52	52	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	17.2	16.4	0.75	14.7	17.4	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.87,0.91,0.83,0.71,0.87,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 85, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.97,0.99,1	94.9%
POR 107, HOU 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
PHI 98, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.92,1	94.1%