NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	8.2 [213]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +34.3%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	4.7 [415]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -26.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.09	0.15	0.00	8	81%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	11	55%	0.08	1	-0.09	9	78%	-0.06
James Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	15	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.08,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	20	50%	0.01	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.27	0.07	-0.32	0.02	8	72%	0.11	3	-0.38	9	78%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.4,0.37,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.18	0.01	17	68%	0.37	1	-0.03	10	100%	0.09
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	6	71%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.01	12	65%	0.12	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.06
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	90%	0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	45%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	14	43%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.5	28.5	17.3	30.5	2.7	36.7	140.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +24.9%

MIA -0.9%

MIA -0.1%

DAL +23.6%

DAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.5	107.9	112.6	106.4
season	16.0	15.6		105.9	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.7		107.1	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	18.4	15.3	17.0	16.5
DAL	14.9	17.6	16.0	16.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	47	45	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.06	6	-8	14	16.7	16.3	0.44	15.7	16.7	-0.93
Jamario Moon	41	41	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.19	0	-2	2	16.0	17.0	-0.95	15.7	16.7	-0.99
Jamaal Magloire	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-2	2	17.0	16.5	0.54	17.2	16.0	1.23
Chris Quinn	4	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	3	-8	24.0	16.2	7.81	20.0	16.0	4.05
James Jones	23	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-1	0	15.7	16.8	-1.20	15.9	16.3	-0.37
Mario Chalmers	69	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.43	2	-4	6	17.0	15.1	1.86	16.1	16.4	-0.28
Dwyane Wade	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-2	2	16.2	17.9	-1.63	16.1	16.7	-0.58
Udonis Haslem	66	66	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.46	-2	0	-2	16.6	16.5	0.08	16.0	16.7	-0.64
Daequan Cook	58	56	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	1	-4	16.3	16.9	-0.56	16.5	15.5	0.99
Michael Beasley	51	49	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.49	-7	5	-12	16.5	16.6	-0.07	16.5	15.8	0.75

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	60	64	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.54	12	-10	22	16.0	16.5	-0.43	16.5	16.7	-0.25
Brandon Bass	41	42	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.40	9	-7	16	15.8	16.5	-0.72	17.1	16.1	1.01
Josh Howard	55	55	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	-3	8	15.9	16.7	-0.90	16.3	16.9	-0.60
Dirk Nowitzki	70	72	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	1	0	16.4	15.4	0.96	16.3	17.4	-1.08
Jason Kidd	70	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	2	-2	16.4	15.4	0.96	16.3	17.3	-1.00
Ryan Hollins	14	14	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-2	6	16.7	16.1	0.63	18.1	16.2	1.90
James Singleton	7	8	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	0	2	16.0	16.2	-0.20	14.5	16.7	-2.24
Jose Juan Barea	23	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	2	-2	16.5	16.1	0.46	16.8	16.4	0.40
Antoine Wright	53	53	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	13	-24	16.3	16.0	0.25	17.0	15.9	1.14
Erick Dampier	42	42	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.01	-12	14	-26	16.1	16.3	-0.17	16.2	16.8	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.29,0.45,0.61,0.46,0.76,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 99, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.96,1	92.3%
ORL 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.57,0.85,1	91.8%
UTA 91, POR 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.99,1	91.7%