NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	9.1 [106]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +28.0%
Chicago Bulls	103		Comeback	5.0 [412]		LVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): -41.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	11	68%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08	-0.03	0.09	-0.02	14	47%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.13
Michael Redd	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06	0.13	-0.07	0.00	24	58%	0.12	2	-0.06	11	55%	-0.13
Bobby Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Voskuhl	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07,-0.07	0.05	-0.12	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	11	45%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	15	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	0.00	8	12%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.22,0.15,0.27,0.28	0.28	0.08	0.20	-0.00	20	56%	0.35	2	-0.07	15	87%	0.18
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.00	18	70%	0.30	3	-0.17	4	100%	0.04
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	83%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.00	3	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	55%	0.08	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.28,-0.34,-0.41,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.12	-0.27	0.02	12	34%	-0.27	3	-0.14	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	26.9	15.6	24.3	1.8	42.3	135.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -11.5%

CHI +59.9%

CHI +32.0%

MIL -31.2%

CHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.0	13.5	15.4	101.0	106.2	105.7
season	15.8	15.0		103.4	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	17.6	15.5	14.9	16.0
CHI	16.5	14.4	13.8	10.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	42	42	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.11	2	-6	8	15.3	16.5	-1.17	15.2	12.3	2.90
Jake Voskuhl	20	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-2	0	14.7	16.3	-1.61	12.5	13.8	-1.37
Charlie Villanueva	46	44	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-5	6	16.0	15.9	0.08	11.8	15.0	-3.12
Charlie Bell	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-4	4	16.4	15.7	0.71	12.6	14.3	-1.71
Andrew Bogut	76	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-3	2	16.6	13.8	2.79	14.4	11.1	3.27
Yi Jianlian	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	1	-6	15.7	16.3	-0.59	14.1	12.8	1.29
Michael Redd	87	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	1	-6	15.8	17.6	-1.87	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Mo Williams	80	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	15.4	18.4	-3.02	13.5	13.8	-0.34
Royal Ivey	39	39	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	17.6	14.9	2.72	13.2	13.8	-0.57

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	71	72	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.42	9	-5	14	12.5	16.5	-3.98	16.6	14.2	2.49
Andres Nocioni	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.45	7	-3	10	11.7	16.7	-5.09	15.6	16.6	-1.02
Luol Deng	88	89	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.32	11	-7	18	13.4	14.8	-1.36	16.1	14.4	1.69
Kirk Hinrich	84	85	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.42	1	3	-2	13.3	15.0	-1.68	15.6	18.7	-3.13
Ben Wallace	67	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	2	0	13.7	13.2	0.55	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Aaron Gray	30	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	2	0	13.2	13.7	-0.55	16.0	16.0	0.03
Joe Smith	34	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.11	-1	5	-6	17.1	11.6	5.50	16.3	15.8	0.57
Tyrus Thomas	9	9	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.06	-7	11	-18	14.8	13.4	1.36	14.4	16.1	-1.69
Chris Duhon	41	42	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.04	-4	8	-12	15.7	12.0	3.74	16.0	16.0	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 110, PHI 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.73,1	92.6%
MIA 96, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.29,0.45,0.61,0.46,0.76,0.91,1	92.3%
UTA 96, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.45,0.96,1	92.2%