NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	6.9 [438]		MVP	Nick Collison (OKC): +8.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	78		Comeback	7.6 [71]		LVP	Jeff Green (OKC): -21.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.02	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	6	23%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	10	35%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.17	-0.01	-0.17	-0.00	22	56%	0.03	5	-0.20	6	67%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.09	0.02	13	45%	-0.07	4	-0.11	5	40%	-0.10

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	4	80%	0.12	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	24	49%	0.06	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	42%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	12%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	16	25%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	15	31%	-0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	28.1	15.7	24.2	2.7	32.4	128.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +5.8%

OKC +15.7%

SAS -2.1%

OKC +25.5%

OKC +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.5	81.7	82.1	106.4
season	16.4	14.9		106.6	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.7	15.3	15.0	19.8	15.8
OKC	17.7	12.4	13.8	16.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	28	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.1	15.2	1.89	14.9	14.8	0.09
Kurt Thomas	20	22	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	0	-2	15.9	15.8	0.15	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Ime Udoka	34	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-1	0	17.5	14.8	2.70	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	9	8	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	9	-20	16.3	15.7	0.61	12.2	15.1	-2.85
Tim Duncan	70	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.43	6	-8	14	14.8	18.9	-4.16	15.2	13.8	1.39
Tony Parker	70	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.48	7	-9	16	15.2	17.5	-2.25	15.4	13.2	2.17
Michael Finley	77	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-6	10	15.6	16.7	-1.09	15.2	13.5	1.67
Matt Bonner	60	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-4	6	15.6	16.2	-0.57	15.0	14.5	0.50
Roger Mason Jr.	67	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.45	3	-5	8	15.5	16.4	-0.89	15.1	14.2	0.88
George Hill	30	31	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.01	-16	14	-30	17.5	15.0	2.53	12.2	16.2	-4.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	52	52	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-16	34	13.1	17.0	-3.99	17.1	14.1	2.93
Chucky Atkins	31	30	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.03	14	-12	26	12.7	15.9	-3.15	17.7	14.9	2.88
Kyle Weaver	38	36	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.05	12	-10	22	12.6	16.4	-3.76	17.7	14.5	3.21
Thabo Sefolosha	65	65	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.56	-7	9	-16	15.5	13.5	2.04	16.0	15.3	0.66
Kevin Durant	81	78	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.45	-6	8	-14	15.9	9.1	6.71	15.5	17.1	-1.53
Jeff Green	77	76	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.46	-8	10	-18	15.0	14.1	0.93	15.3	17.9	-2.64
Nenad Krstic	51	50	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.25	-5	7	-12	16.3	13.2	3.09	14.5	17.2	-2.69
Russell Westbrook	64	63	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.41	-12	14	-26	15.9	12.7	3.15	14.9	17.7	-2.88
Malik Rose	16	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	-2	6	13.1	15.2	-2.17	13.6	16.2	-2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.27,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.79,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 81, ATL 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.77,0.91,1	91.3%
GSW 88, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.51,0.28,0.32,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.91,1,1	90.8%
LAL 107, MIA 115	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.37,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.92,1	90.7%