NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	107		Excitement	7.9 [291]		MVP	Lou Williams (LAL): +27.2%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	6.7 [430]		LVP	Jordan Clarkson (LAL): -12.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lou Williams	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.27	0.16	0.12	0.01	17	64%	0.32	1	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Nick Young	0.19	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19	0.15	0.04	-0.00	14	69%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	10	65%	0.17	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	11	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.03
Thomas Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	4	80%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
D'Angelo Russell	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	16	53%	0.06	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Clarkson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	10	20%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.05	0.02	12	77%	0.23	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.04
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.10	-0.01	16	61%	0.24	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.01,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.13	0.02	15	57%	0.25	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	11	79%	0.24	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	14	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	11	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.5	27.4	27.2	23.7	3.4	42.3	150.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.0%

LAL -1.0%

MIA +9.4%

MIA +3.0%

LAL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	14.8	108.1	116.2	107.7
season	14.5	15.4		104.8	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.4		105.9	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.7	13.2	17.2	13.4	14.6
MIA	14.1	15.6	13.5	14.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	73	73	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.04	10	-18	28	14.4	15.0	-0.55	15.5	11.7	3.86
Jordan Clarkson	51	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	1	-10	14.7	14.4	0.35	14.7	14.4	0.33
Timofey Mozgov	62	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	-5	2	14.9	13.9	0.97	14.7	14.3	0.46
Metta World Peace	5	6	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-1	-6	19.0	14.3	4.68	9.7	14.8	-5.18
Thomas Robinson	37	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-3	-2	13.9	14.9	-0.97	14.3	14.7	-0.46
Brandon Ingram	71	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-10	12	14.4	14.9	-0.52	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Luol Deng	70	67	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	2	-12	14.9	13.7	1.22	14.8	14.0	0.74
D'Angelo Russell	66	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.20	-11	3	-14	14.8	14.0	0.83	14.4	14.7	-0.28
Lou Williams	60	61	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.36	-7	-1	-6	13.7	15.9	-2.26	14.0	15.3	-1.31

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	87	86	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.25	22	-14	36	14.1	17.4	-3.28	15.1	10.7	4.45
Tyler Johnson	70	70	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.21	18	-10	28	14.8	13.9	0.85	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Hassan Whiteside	75	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-5	18	14.4	15.0	-0.56	15.0	12.9	2.18
Josh Richardson	77	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	8	-8	14.2	15.8	-1.59	14.0	16.4	-2.45
Goran Dragic	72	73	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	2	4	15.5	11.9	3.59	14.4	14.9	-0.45
James Johnson	54	54	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	7	-6	14.3	14.8	-0.49	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Luke Babbitt	14	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	12	-16	12.7	14.8	-2.12	13.4	14.7	-1.31
Willie Reed	14	13	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	15	-22	15.1	14.4	0.71	11.3	15.0	-3.74
Josh McRoberts	32	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.07	-9	17	-26	14.9	14.3	0.59	16.1	13.8	2.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.37,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.41,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	91.8%
PHI 88, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.68,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.92,1	91.4%
SAC 118, DEN 120	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.2,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.25,0.41,0.4,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.62,0.83,0.9,0.96,1	91.1%