NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	88		Excitement	7.4 [389]		MVP	Damon Stoudamire (POR): +11.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	10.3 [228]		LVP	Mickael Pietrus (GSW): -26.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	12	42%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	16	53%	0.04	1	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Clifford Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Adonal Foyle	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ansu Sesay	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	11	45%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.07	0.01	13	40%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Speedy Claxton	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	11	41%	-0.12	1	-0.08	5	40%	-0.04
Mickael Pietrus	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.19	-0.08	-0.01	14	29%	-0.20	3	-0.07	6	33%	-0.06

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	12	66%	0.17	1	-0.05	5	60%	-0.07
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	0.01	0.04	14	74%	0.14	1	-0.04	7	86%	-0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.08	0.01	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	12	67%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	11	52%	-0.05	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	5	21%	-0.17	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.09
Darius Miles	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	8	33%	-0.10	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	28.2	15.6	28.2	2.3	38.7	138.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +56.5%

GSW -2.2%

POR +9.0%

GSW -4.9%

GSW -8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	POR	NBA	GSW	POR	NBA
this game	16.1	13.1	15.5	88.0	100.0	104.0
season	15.0	15.8		102.3	101.2
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.4	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	15.0	18.2	16.5	16.1
POR	13.9	13.8	15.2	10.1	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	73	68	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-15	21	15.2	18.6	-3.43	14.3	10.3	3.98
Mickael Pietrus	49	48	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-13	17	16.6	15.6	1.02	15.9	10.3	5.57
Adonal Foyle	17	15	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-8	7	17.9	15.7	2.23	11.0	13.5	-2.49
Ansu Sesay	16	19	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-2	-5	15.2	16.2	-1.00	12.0	13.4	-1.37
Clifford Robinson	78	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-10	11	15.6	17.7	-2.04	13.9	10.8	3.07
Speedy Claxton	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-6	3	16.5	14.9	1.59	13.7	11.4	2.35
Troy Murphy	89	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	2	-13	16.1	16.2	-0.10	12.9	15.5	-2.61
Derek Fisher	53	51	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.06	-19	10	-29	16.3	15.9	0.41	10.6	15.8	-5.18
Calbert Cheaney	52	50	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.23	-15	6	-21	16.4	15.7	0.73	10.7	15.6	-4.88

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	53	55	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.19	25	-16	41	11.5	15.0	-3.47	15.5	16.8	-1.33
Damon Stoudamire	61	61	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-4	17	11.2	16.3	-5.09	16.6	15.3	1.37
Ruben Patterson	59	59	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	1	7	11.8	15.1	-3.29	16.5	15.4	1.10
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	93	94	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	0	9	13.1	12.7	0.37	16.1	16.2	-0.08
Darius Miles	58	62	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	4	1	13.5	12.5	0.99	14.8	18.3	-3.51
Travis Outlaw	20	20	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	6	-3	12.1	13.4	-1.20	18.1	15.6	2.57
Richie Frahm	16	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.05	0	9	-9	11.2	13.5	-2.29	17.9	15.7	2.19
Nick Van Exel	43	46	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.12	-1	10	-11	15.9	10.9	5.04	15.8	16.4	-0.57
Joel Przybilla	39	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	14	-19	14.2	12.4	1.80	17.2	15.3	1.91
Derek Anderson	43	44	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	21	-33	16.3	10.6	5.75	15.0	17.0	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.51,0.28,0.32,0.59,0.59,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 85, SAS 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.73,0.8,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.4%
POR 92, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.2,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.25,0.2,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.95,1	92.5%
MIN 88, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.1,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.94,0.98,1,1	92.1%