NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	3.7 [1063]		MVP	Shelden Williams (SAC): +10.9%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	1.4 [1165]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -9.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shelden Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	6	83%	0.17	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
John Salmons	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	14	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	12	42%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	15	47%	0.00	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Donte Greene	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	25%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Quincy Douby	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	0.00	0.09	7	75%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.05	8	69%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	45%	-0.04	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.14	0.00	0.04	14	68%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.01	14	68%	0.12	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	15	58%	0.11	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.05	10	75%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	43%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	6	43%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.5	26.3	16.4	25.7	2.5	29.2	129.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.4%

SAC -4.4%

DAL +12.4%

SAC -3.3%

DAL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DAL	NBA	SAC	DAL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.9	15.5	102.0	119.2	106.4
season	15.0	15.6		104.0	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.1		107.1	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.9	16.5	15.7	12.8	14.3
DAL	12.9	13.5	18.6	15.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	45	44	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.18	11	-29	40	12.7	15.7	-3.02	15.9	14.1	1.75
Shelden Williams	51	53	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.25	10	-28	38	13.8	14.9	-1.09	14.9	14.8	0.12
Donte Greene	10	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-25	32	11.6	14.7	-3.06	17.3	14.6	2.68
Quincy Douby	10	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-25	32	11.6	14.7	-3.06	17.3	14.6	2.68
Francisco Garcia	36	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.17	-10	-8	-2	14.1	14.5	-0.42	15.1	14.7	0.39
Beno Udrih	73	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	0	-18	15.4	11.3	4.12	14.9	14.8	0.17
Jason Thompson	64	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.23	-22	4	-26	14.5	14.1	0.35	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Spencer Hawes	61	63	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	-2	-14	14.7	13.8	0.86	14.6	15.4	-0.74
Kevin Martin	66	66	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	0.15	-26	8	-34	14.6	13.8	0.75	14.2	16.2	-1.94
John Salmons	74	75	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	0.31	-33	15	-48	14.9	12.5	2.45	14.5	16.0	-1.47

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	74	74	0.73	-0.23	0.96	-0.41	39	-21	60	14.1	17.3	-3.20	15.1	11.9	3.27
Josh Howard	72	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.00	21	-3	24	14.9	15.0	-0.10	15.4	11.8	3.54
Erick Dampier	61	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	0	18	15.2	14.4	0.72	15.3	12.8	2.50
Antoine Wright	48	50	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.25	24	-6	30	15.3	14.5	0.86	14.3	14.4	-0.18
Dirk Nowitzki	73	73	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.26	22	-4	26	14.6	15.8	-1.25	14.7	13.4	1.32
Brandon Bass	40	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.19	10	8	2	13.7	15.7	-2.04	14.0	14.6	-0.68
James Singleton	13	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	23	-28	16.9	14.6	2.34	11.5	14.7	-3.26
Gerald Green	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	23	-28	16.1	14.8	1.34	11.3	14.6	-3.30
Ryan Hollins	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	23	-28	16.1	14.8	1.34	11.3	14.6	-3.30
Jose Juan Barea	54	53	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	21	-24	14.4	15.5	-1.06	14.0	14.8	-0.80
Matt Carroll	37	35	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.39	-17	35	-52	16.9	13.7	3.24	12.3	15.5	-3.25
Devean George	7	9	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	27	-36	15.0	14.9	0.12	11.6	14.6	-3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 112, POR 129	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
SAS 88, GSW 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
MEM 105, SEA 121	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%