NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	4.0 [1023]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +7.2%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.9 [216]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -8.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Dampier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	15	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.03	0.05	21	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	72%	0.09	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	12	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.20	-0.00	0.12	19	70%	0.15	3	-0.08	12	75%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	10	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	1	33%	-0.00	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	49%	0.00	1	-0.03	13	69%	-0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	13	43%	-0.07	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	30.0	15.7	25.5	2.7	35.3	136.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +37.1%

DAL +7.3%

DAL +2.7%

ORL -1.8%

DAL +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.5	110.5	102.2	106.4
season	15.6	15.3		108.9	107.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		101.4	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.1	16.5	15.0	15.2	15.4
ORL	14.9	14.8	16.3	14.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	71	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-6	22	15.3	15.7	-0.44	15.3	15.0	0.29
Dirk Nowitzki	79	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-3	16	15.3	16.2	-1.00	15.3	14.9	0.34
Jason Terry	65	63	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	15.8	14.7	1.05	14.5	16.7	-2.14
Ryan Hollins	21	21	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	-1	12	14.1	15.8	-1.70	16.8	14.8	2.00
Josh Howard	66	65	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	2	6	15.5	15.3	0.11	15.8	13.9	1.94
Antoine Wright	59	58	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	5	0	15.0	16.1	-1.07	15.3	15.1	0.25
Erick Dampier	45	44	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	3	4	15.5	15.3	0.21	15.6	14.9	0.76
Brandon Bass	45	44	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.27	-11	21	-32	16.2	14.7	1.52	14.0	16.3	-2.35
Jose Juan Barea	24	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	16	-22	15.7	15.3	0.44	15.0	15.3	-0.29

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	16	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-8	6	15.4	15.2	0.19	13.9	15.7	-1.80
Tony Battie	28	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-5	0	15.0	15.3	-0.26	16.4	15.0	1.33
Courtney Lee	67	68	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.17	1	-11	12	14.9	16.0	-1.09	14.9	16.9	-2.00
Anthony Johnson	37	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-7	4	15.7	14.9	0.85	16.1	15.0	1.04
Mickael Pietrus	56	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-11	12	14.6	16.2	-1.62	16.3	14.1	2.24
Jameer Nelson	36	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.08	-12	2	-14	15.5	15.0	0.51	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Rashard Lewis	80	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-2	-6	15.2	15.5	-0.38	15.1	17.5	-2.36
Dwight Howard	78	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-3	-4	15.3	14.6	0.73	15.4	15.4	0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	67	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.16	-15	5	-20	15.6	14.3	1.26	15.3	15.8	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, HOU 74	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
PHX 127, MEM 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
IND 108, DEN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%