NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	79		Excitement	4.9 [854]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +30.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	89		Comeback	1.6 [451]		LVP	Jeff Green (OKC): -18.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.04	14	64%	0.11	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	5	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	14	41%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.07
Rodney Stuckey	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	10	15%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	19	47%	-0.03	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.10	-0.04	21	73%	0.35	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.01	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.00	7	71%	-0.02
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	58%	0.09	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	-0.05	10	23%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.20	-0.01	-0.03	16	25%	-0.07	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	27.3	16.7	25.2	2.4	28.7	126.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +17.4%

OKC +18.0%

OKC +23.5%

DET -10.0%

OKC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	15.7	16.2	15.5	87.8	97.8	106.4
season	16.9	14.9		104.9	100.5
opponent	15.1	15.7		106.6	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	15.9	16.6	15.8	15.7
OKC	16.2	15.4	16.9	16.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-14	18	10.7	15.8	-5.17	27.0	15.8	11.22
Walter Herrmann	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-14	18	10.7	15.8	-5.17	27.0	15.8	11.22
Will Bynum	11	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.21	7	-17	24	12.5	16.1	-3.56	19.7	15.6	4.05
Amir Johnson	46	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-12	14	15.3	16.1	-0.83	17.2	15.2	1.98
Arron Afflalo	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.18	2	-12	14	15.1	15.9	-0.85	17.1	15.7	1.46
Tayshaun Prince	63	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-3	-4	16.0	14.9	1.11	15.7	17.3	-1.62
Richard Hamilton	69	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-5	0	15.4	16.5	-1.12	16.2	15.9	0.38
Antonio McDyess	36	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	0	-10	16.1	15.4	0.65	15.6	16.6	-0.99
Allen Iverson	65	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	3	-16	16.4	13.9	2.47	15.1	19.0	-3.92
Rasheed Wallace	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	5	-20	16.0	15.0	1.03	15.5	17.5	-2.01
Rodney Stuckey	63	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.00	-19	9	-28	16.0	15.0	0.95	15.7	17.1	-1.34

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.18	13	-3	16	16.0	17.2	-1.18	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Kevin Durant	87	86	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	2	6	16.1	17.0	-0.89	15.5	18.7	-3.23
Earl Watson	38	37	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-2	14	16.3	16.1	0.23	16.5	15.1	1.48
Chris Wilcox	48	47	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	2	6	17.3	14.9	2.45	15.4	16.0	-0.55
Kyle Weaver	31	32	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	0	10	15.2	16.7	-1.51	16.8	15.1	1.73
Nenad Krstic	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.02	4	6	-2	15.2	17.3	-2.16	16.0	15.2	0.84
Desmond Mason	67	64	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.16	-3	13	-16	16.7	14.6	2.13	15.3	16.6	-1.33
Russell Westbrook	53	53	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	12	-14	16.1	16.3	-0.23	15.1	16.5	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 72, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CLE 103, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	94.9%
NYK 109, ATL 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.4%