NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	89		Excitement	8.7 [152]		MVP	Mike James (WAS): +41.3%
Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Comeback	45.3 [65]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -46.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.41	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41	0.15	0.26	0.00	14	90%	0.54	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.02	0.10	-0.07	0.01	21	61%	0.11	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Young	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	5	30%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	8	22%	-0.11	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.07
Caron Butler	-0.47	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.47	-0.18	-0.32	-0.03	13	23%	-0.11	4	-0.36	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.33	0.33	0.13	0.20	0.00	14	71%	0.37	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.07
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.31	0.31	0.09	0.22	-0.01	7	72%	0.31	0	0.00	4	75%	0.08
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	-0.00	-0.05	13	50%	0.18	3	-0.12	10	60%	-0.06
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	5	36%	-0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,-0.13	-0.13	0.03	-0.17	-0.00	18	47%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	0.01	4	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.8	29.0	19.8	24.3	3.4	44.5	148.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -8.6%

CLE +41.3%

CLE +8.7%

CLE +14.0%

WAS -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CLE	NBA	WAS	CLE	NBA
this game	16.5	15.5	15.5	97.8	104.5	106.4
season	15.9	16.9		103.5	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.2		101.0	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.6	15.9	14.3	19.5	16.5
CLE	18.6	14.8	14.5	14.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Etan Thomas	4	4	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.01	2	-6	8	19.2	16.4	2.89	14.7	15.5	-0.79
Antawn Jamison	73	74	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-4	4	17.2	13.6	3.65	16.2	12.2	3.98
DeShawn Stevenson	40	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	3	-10	15.6	17.1	-1.49	15.4	15.6	-0.10
Darius Songaila	39	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-1	-2	14.7	17.8	-3.13	14.9	16.0	-1.11
Mike James	67	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.53	8	-12	20	16.2	17.3	-1.10	15.8	14.8	0.98
Nick Young	23	22	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.08	-13	9	-22	16.8	16.4	0.46	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Andray Blatche	66	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.32	-4	0	-4	17.3	14.2	3.09	15.4	15.8	-0.43
Caron Butler	75	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.50	2	-6	8	16.4	16.8	-0.40	15.4	15.8	-0.32
Dominic McGuire	68	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	1	-6	16.5	16.5	0.01	15.5	15.5	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	65	68	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.44	12	-8	20	15.3	16.1	-0.79	17.0	15.0	2.04
LeBron James	69	71	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.51	-4	8	-12	15.8	14.6	1.10	16.5	16.6	-0.15
Delonte West	73	75	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.40	-2	6	-8	15.7	14.5	1.23	16.9	14.5	2.41
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	56	59	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	-12	28	15.2	16.1	-0.93	17.6	14.5	3.06
Anderson Varejao	57	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	4	-4	15.5	15.5	-0.04	16.4	16.7	-0.31
Daniel Gibson	40	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	1	2	15.4	15.6	-0.10	15.0	17.6	-2.65
Ben Wallace	49	49	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.37	-6	10	-16	15.6	15.4	0.24	16.2	16.8	-0.52
Sasha Pavlovic	5	6	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	-2	8	9.6	15.9	-6.26	19.2	16.3	2.87
Wally Szczerbiak	31	30	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.10	-5	9	-14	16.4	15.0	1.35	14.3	17.6	-3.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.21,0.1,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, IND 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.27,0.46,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.29,0.29,1	90.7%
NYK 81, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	89.7%
DET 94, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.15,0.28,0.31,0.46,0.32,0.42,1	89.3%