NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	8.6 [145]		MVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): +14.9%
San Antonio Spurs	95		Comeback	5.7 [230]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -36.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scot Pollard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.13	0.00	2	67%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bison Dele	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Mahorn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,-0.01	0.08	-0.09	-0.00	18	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	40%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	12	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Malik Sealy	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.08	0.02	-0.10	0.00	9	62%	0.09	1	-0.17	3	33%	-0.12
Grant Hill	-0.36	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.36	-0.01	-0.34	0.02	17	53%	-0.30	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,0.15	0.15	-0.05	0.22	0.02	13	54%	0.30	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.01	18	74%	0.32	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	9	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.09
Will Perdue	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chuck Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Geary	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	8	76%	0.11	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	13	38%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	26.0	16.8	27.1	1.8	30.1	132.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +78.2%

SAS +2.7%

DET -2.5%

DET -30.2%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	17.7	17.7	15.6	116.0	115.9	102.5
season	15.9	15.9		102.8	100.9
opponent	15.9	15.9		97.2	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.5	15.0	20.1	18.3	17.7
SAS	17.6	19.3	17.8	16.0	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	23	25	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.16	14	-15	29	16.7	18.1	-1.40	19.9	16.7	3.16
Rick Mahorn	22	23	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.02	7	-8	15	18.7	17.3	1.41	18.6	17.3	1.29
Bison Dele	13	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.07	-3	2	-5	17.4	17.7	-0.32	16.6	17.9	-1.27
Eric Montross	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	10	-21	18.2	17.4	0.79	18.1	17.5	0.63
Lindsey Hunter	62	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.51	6	-7	13	17.6	17.7	-0.04	17.8	17.3	0.48
Joe Dumars	59	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.67	10	-11	21	16.7	20.2	-3.53	18.3	15.8	2.52
Grant Hill	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-5	9	17.6	17.9	-0.22	17.9	16.1	1.73
Scot Pollard	39	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	10	-21	19.0	16.4	2.60	16.5	18.7	-2.16
Jerry Stackhouse	41	41	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.02	-18	17	-35	19.0	16.2	2.82	16.1	19.2	-3.12
Malik Sealy	47	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.46	-3	2	-5	16.4	19.4	-3.08	17.2	18.4	-1.20

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	72	72	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.38	17	-16	33	17.1	22.1	-5.03	18.3	12.3	5.99
Reggie Geary	7	6	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.75	2	-1	3	16.4	17.8	-1.37	12.0	18.1	-6.11
Monty Williams	53	53	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.37	12	-11	23	16.9	19.1	-2.20	17.5	17.9	-0.36
Jaren Jackson	61	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.62	-1	2	-3	17.6	18.0	-0.49	17.7	17.4	0.30
Avery Johnson	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	0	1	17.5	21.0	-3.53	17.9	13.6	4.32
Carl Herrera	26	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.08	3	-2	5	17.4	17.8	-0.44	18.7	17.2	1.56
Chuck Person	28	29	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.01	-7	8	-15	18.0	17.5	0.43	16.1	18.5	-2.47
Will Perdue	25	24	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	0.14	-15	16	-31	19.8	16.8	2.99	16.5	18.1	-1.58
Vinny Del Negro	61	61	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.27	-7	8	-15	18.8	14.5	4.25	17.9	16.9	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.5,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.15,0.28,0.31,0.46,0.32,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, IND 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.27,0.46,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.45,0.29,0.29,1	90.6%
NYK 81, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	90.6%
HOU 98, TOR 100	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.56,0.56,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	89.9%