NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Excitement	6.4 [548]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +40.9%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	3.9 [342]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -25.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.41,0.41	0.14	0.28	0.02	29	58%	0.46	2	-0.05	13	85%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	7	57%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	65%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JJ Hickson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	13	53%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	11	44%	0.03	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Delonte West	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	19	62%	0.21	3	-0.11	9	89%	0.04
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	-0.06	13	62%	0.16	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	10	32%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	17	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	21	37%	-0.16	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.4	30.3	15.8	26.8	1.8	39.2	143.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +44.9%

CLE +2.8%

CHI -0.4%

CLE +4.4%

CHI -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	CHI	NBA	CLE	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	14.9	15.5	114.0	107.8	106.4
season	16.9	14.8		110.6	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.2		107.2	101.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.6	17.0	17.9	17.1	16.5
CHI	13.5	14.3	18.1	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	56	56	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-1	11	16.1	17.1	-1.03	14.9	15.0	-0.06
Wally Szczerbiak	43	44	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.28	13	-4	17	16.7	16.4	0.29	14.8	15.1	-0.27
Mo Williams	72	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-3	15	16.3	17.2	-0.87	15.2	14.1	1.01
LeBron James	77	74	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-3	15	16.6	15.9	0.70	14.6	16.4	-1.75
Daniel Gibson	48	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.38	-5	14	-19	16.9	16.1	0.87	14.8	15.1	-0.26
Delonte West	66	62	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	-2	13	16.4	16.7	-0.32	14.8	15.3	-0.51
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	43	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.11	3	6	-3	16.3	16.7	-0.31	15.5	14.4	1.11
Ben Wallace	49	45	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	11	-13	17.2	15.7	1.54	15.5	14.4	1.07
JJ Hickson	11	11	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.09	-9	18	-27	14.5	16.8	-2.24	13.3	15.2	-1.89

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joakim Noah	51	52	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.12	5	-14	19	14.3	15.8	-1.57	17.1	15.8	1.23
Ben Gordon	74	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-6	3	14.7	16.0	-1.30	15.8	19.9	-4.13
Aaron Gray	17	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-2	-5	15.7	14.8	0.95	12.6	17.5	-4.95
Thabo Sefolosha	29	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-5	1	16.2	14.3	1.93	17.7	16.0	1.62
Andres Nocioni	71	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-13	17	14.7	15.9	-1.29	17.0	14.9	2.10
Luol Deng	85	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	-1	-7	14.8	17.2	-2.40	16.5	16.4	0.12
Tyrus Thomas	41	44	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.05	-20	11	-31	15.9	14.1	1.82	16.8	16.3	0.49
Derrick Rose	82	87	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	3	-15	14.8	16.1	-1.31	16.8	12.7	4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.48,0.29,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.23,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 112, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.34,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.09,0	91.9%
BKN 104, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.22,0.1,0.02,0.02,0,0	90.9%
DEN 112, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	90.7%