NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	84		Excitement	5.3 [728]		MVP	Damien Wilkins (SEA): +24.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	97		Comeback	2.1 [181]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -9.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	6	59%	0.09	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Martell Webster	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.03	0.04	20	54%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	17	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Travis Outlaw	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	46%	-0.00	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	13	38%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.07	-0.02	11	77%	0.25	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.08	-0.00	13	74%	0.25	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	9	48%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	8	65%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	17	42%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	12	54%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	30.9	15.0	28.3	2.5	27.5	129.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +53.0%

SEA +1.9%

POR -10.3%

SEA +5.1%

SEA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SEA	NBA	POR	SEA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.4	90.3	109.0	105.7
season	16.7	14.5		105.5	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.4		107.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.6	14.0	22.8	14.5	16.1
SEA	15.4	11.1	15.1	22.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	45	44	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.09	6	-19	25	17.0	15.2	1.79	13.5	17.6	-4.03
James Jones	30	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	-10	7	13.1	17.5	-4.34	16.3	15.2	1.06
Jarrett Jack	40	39	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-10	7	14.1	17.5	-3.38	15.0	16.0	-1.05
Travis Outlaw	42	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	13.4	18.3	-4.87	17.7	13.9	3.75
Brandon Roy	76	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-2	-9	17.1	11.7	5.35	15.3	16.8	-1.49
Channing Frye	31	31	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-5	-3	16.0	16.1	-0.11	17.6	14.4	3.20
Martell Webster	63	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	17.5	13.1	4.34	15.2	16.3	-1.06
Joel Przybilla	68	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	2	-17	17.1	13.2	3.99	14.7	17.8	-3.17
Steve Blake	70	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	-1	-11	16.1	16.0	0.16	16.2	13.8	2.37

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	81	83	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	1	11	15.3	18.2	-2.95	16.8	10.3	6.47
Jeff Green	78	79	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	0	13	15.4	16.9	-1.54	16.9	11.6	5.30
Nick Collison	70	70	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	-2	17	15.7	15.2	0.51	17.7	11.3	6.40
Kevin Durant	69	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	0	13	15.2	16.8	-1.66	16.5	14.3	2.23
Johan Petro	48	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.15	6	7	-1	15.1	16.1	-1.04	15.8	16.5	-0.75
Damien Wilkins	58	59	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	6	1	16.6	13.7	2.84	14.4	19.0	-4.56
Francisco Elson	32	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	13	-13	16.0	15.3	0.64	14.1	17.2	-3.18
Eddie Gill	8	10	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	12	-11	18.2	15.3	2.95	10.3	16.8	-6.47
Adrian Griffin	1	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	15	-17	1.0	15.7	-14.73	5.0	16.3	-11.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 100, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.45,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.7%
IND 79, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%