NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	79		Excitement	4.5 [934]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +15.2%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.1 [885]		LVP	Lance Stephenson (IND): -15.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.03	14	65%	0.17	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
David West	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	-0.01	-0.05	16	47%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	37%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.03	0.04	19	71%	0.11	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	4	11%	-0.04	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Lance Stephenson	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	7	29%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.04	0.03	9	89%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.05	-0.04	26	54%	0.18	3	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	12	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	6	50%	0.04	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.5	31.9	18.8	36.5	3.4	28.5	147.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.5%

IND -10.5%

MIA +0.6%

MIA +20.3%

IND -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	17.4	17.1	15.4	95.2	107.1	104.1
season	16.1	15.7		102.4	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.4	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	17.1	19.4	18.9	14.1	17.4
MIA	17.1	16.6	15.4	19.3	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	13	13	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.08	8	-19	27	17.3	17.4	-0.06	17.7	17.0	0.66
Sam Young	30	28	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-9	7	18.5	16.7	1.73	15.7	17.8	-2.07
George Hill	65	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-9	7	17.2	17.9	-0.74	16.8	18.4	-1.67
Roy Hibbert	69	70	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-10	9	17.1	18.9	-1.80	17.3	16.1	1.27
Ian Mahinmi	14	14	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-1	-9	18.9	17.1	1.80	16.1	17.3	-1.27
D.J. Augustin	29	30	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-3	-5	17.2	17.5	-0.29	18.8	16.2	2.60
Paul George	76	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	-5	-1	16.9	22.9	-6.00	17.4	14.0	3.37
Lance Stephenson	49	50	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	4	-19	17.8	16.7	1.06	17.0	17.3	-0.32
David West	70	71	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	8	-27	17.4	17.3	0.06	17.0	17.7	-0.66

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-3	17	17.3	15.7	1.55	17.1	19.9	-2.73
Chris Bosh	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-1	13	16.7	18.0	-1.26	17.4	17.2	0.29
Mario Chalmers	58	59	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-2	15	16.4	18.8	-2.48	17.8	16.3	1.45
Udonis Haslem	45	44	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	0	11	17.0	17.3	-0.38	17.6	17.1	0.44
Ray Allen	37	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.12	8	3	5	18.0	16.5	1.50	16.9	17.7	-0.83
Dwyane Wade	71	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.09	6	5	1	17.2	16.8	0.34	17.2	18.3	-1.14
Chris Andersen	32	32	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	10	-9	16.0	17.8	-1.78	19.0	16.4	2.62
Norris Cole	27	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	13	-15	18.8	16.4	2.43	15.7	18.1	-2.35
Shane Battier	15	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	19	-27	18.5	16.8	1.71	17.1	17.4	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 73, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%
LAC 91, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
TOR 73, MIA 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.69,0.73,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%