NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	97		Excitement	6.9 [402]		MVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): +11.8%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	3.6 [922]		LVP	Mickael Gelabale (SEA): -10.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.05	-0.02	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.09	0.03	0.05	14	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Jeff Green	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	52%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Donyell Marshall	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	18	53%	0.09	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	14	56%	0.09	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.02
Francisco Elson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Gelabale	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	17	59%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.03	9	77%	0.22	4	-0.10	8	100%	0.04
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.08	0.15	-0.02	19	39%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.07	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	33.2	16.5	24.8	3.0	40.0	148.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +2.0%

DET +17.8%

DET +17.1%

DET +21.2%

SEA -8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	DET	NBA	SEA	DET	NBA
this game	14.6	15.6	15.4	101.0	105.3	105.7
season	14.5	16.8		99.1	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.0		101.3	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	11.7	15.5	13.3	18.0	14.6
DET	17.1	12.7	17.2	15.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	36	38	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.20	11	-14	25	13.1	15.4	-2.26	17.8	14.2	3.59
Francisco Elson	7	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.07	-4	1	-5	15.0	14.5	0.48	12.5	15.9	-3.40
Kevin Durant	76	77	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.32	7	-10	17	13.9	17.2	-3.34	16.3	12.7	3.56
Jeff Green	69	69	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-9	15	14.4	14.8	-0.37	16.8	12.4	4.39
Earl Watson	77	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.44	7	-10	17	14.0	16.9	-2.99	16.1	13.5	2.67
Luke Ridnour	19	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	7	-17	16.9	14.0	2.99	13.5	16.1	-2.67
Chris Wilcox	79	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.38	4	-7	11	14.6	14.4	0.17	15.7	15.3	0.41
Donyell Marshall	28	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	8	-19	15.2	14.3	0.93	13.4	16.4	-3.01
Mickael Gelabale	20	18	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	7	-17	17.2	13.9	3.34	12.7	16.3	-3.56
Nick Collison	40	40	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.27	-4	1	-5	15.4	13.9	1.50	15.5	15.7	-0.19
Damien Wilkins	29	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	8	-19	14.5	14.6	-0.05	12.5	16.9	-4.37

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	40	42	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.35	16	-13	29	14.1	16.7	-2.65	16.4	13.1	3.25
Jason Maxiell	56	55	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.37	10	-7	17	15.3	16.0	-0.70	15.6	13.1	2.50
Rodney Stuckey	30	34	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-13	29	12.8	16.9	-4.16	16.3	13.6	2.65
Richard Hamilton	69	73	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	4	-5	15.3	16.4	-1.12	14.5	14.7	-0.13
Tayshaun Prince	75	75	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.44	-5	8	-13	16.7	11.5	5.14	14.4	15.0	-0.63
Jarvis Hayes	20	21	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	-5	13	11.5	16.7	-5.14	15.0	14.4	0.63
Juan Dixon	16	15	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	-2	7	16.4	15.4	0.99	15.5	14.4	1.16
Walter Herrmann	1	2	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	1	1	14.0	15.6	-1.63	10.5	14.6	-4.14
Chauncey Billups	65	62	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.40	-13	16	-29	16.9	12.8	4.16	13.6	16.3	-2.65
Arron Afflalo	10	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	4	-5	16.4	15.5	0.88	13.0	14.7	-1.69
Rasheed Wallace	49	50	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	9	-15	15.4	15.8	-0.38	13.8	15.4	-1.65
Antonio McDyess	44	43	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.04	-16	19	-35	17.6	13.9	3.73	12.5	16.2	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.79,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.98,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 94, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.66,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	92.7%
CHI 95, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.78,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.3%
SAS 79, PHX 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.93,1,1,1	91.8%