NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	79		Excitement	6.1 [546]		MVP	Mark Bryant (PHX): +6.6%
Phoenix Suns	97		Comeback	2.4 [733]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -27.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Perdue	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	11	73%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	70%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jaren Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	65%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Geary	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	13	46%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	9	55%	0.07	6	-0.17	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.25,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.06	17	38%	-0.06	4	-0.12	11	82%	-0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.18	-0.11	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	6	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Bryant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.01	12	56%	0.11	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.01	13	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.08
Hot Rod Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.04	12	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marko Milic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Kevin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.04	4	75%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.04	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	25.3	15.3	22.5	2.5	28.2	119.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +22.0%

SAS -6.1%

PHX +36.6%

PHX +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	16.6	14.3	15.6	84.0	105.4	102.5
season	15.9	15.0		100.9	105.3
opponent	15.9	15.9		100.0	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.5	17.3	18.5	16.6
PHX	13.9	13.8	13.2	16.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vinny Del Negro	73	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.12	-7	-11	4	17.1	14.9	2.19	14.0	15.4	-1.36
Will Perdue	77	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-19	20	16.1	19.1	-2.99	14.7	12.7	2.00
Reggie Geary	15	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	-11	4	17.2	16.5	0.71	12.9	14.6	-1.66
Carl Herrera	45	44	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.20	-18	0	-18	17.9	15.4	2.42	14.1	14.6	-0.47
Avery Johnson	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	-7	-4	16.5	17.2	-0.71	14.6	12.9	1.66
Monty Williams	33	31	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-6	-6	15.8	17.1	-1.31	13.5	14.8	-1.29
Jaren Jackson	82	81	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	-1	-16	16.5	17.2	-0.74	14.9	10.0	4.93
Tim Duncan	66	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.01	-19	1	-20	16.4	17.1	-0.76	14.1	14.9	-0.80

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	54	55	0.83	-0.33	1.17	-0.08	31	-13	44	14.5	14.2	0.31	17.1	15.9	1.21
Dennis Scott	28	26	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.01	21	-3	24	15.4	13.9	1.47	18.4	15.9	2.51
Rex Chapman	71	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.01	19	-1	20	14.7	13.0	1.79	16.1	18.8	-2.74
Kevin Johnson	46	47	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	6	6	14.3	14.4	-0.15	16.8	16.4	0.40
Jason Kidd	72	73	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.16	10	8	2	14.0	15.4	-1.36	17.0	15.2	1.76
George McCloud	15	16	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	14	-10	14.4	14.3	0.08	13.5	17.2	-3.74
Antonio McDyess	61	62	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	21	-24	14.6	13.8	0.80	16.6	16.7	-0.08
Clifford Robinson	72	73	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.11	6	12	-6	13.7	16.4	-2.70	16.6	16.6	-0.02
Marko Milic	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	16.0	14.3	1.68	0.0	16.6	-16.61
Hot Rod Williams	7	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	20	-22	12.1	14.5	-2.37	12.9	17.0	-4.08
Mark Bryant	33	35	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.01	-8	26	-34	14.3	14.4	-0.05	16.9	16.4	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	93.6%
CLE 76, IND 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%
SAS 102, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.97,0.96,0.94,1,1	93.3%