NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	5.9 [657]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): +20.6%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	3.3 [152]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -12.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.04	-0.06	17	50%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cameron Payne	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.01	-0.05	14	50%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	16	60%	0.16	5	-0.17	13	92%	0.05
Bobby Portis	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Paul Zipser	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jerian Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.04	0.02	8	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Denzel Valentine	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.20	0.07	0.06	16	76%	0.22	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	13	57%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.06	0.04	10	59%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.02	9	67%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	7	55%	0.04	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.07
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	13	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	21%	-0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	26.6	17.3	32.3	1.8	30.0	132.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +30.0%

CHI -10.2%

DET +16.5%

DET +13.1%

DET +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	14.5	14.8	100.0	113.5	107.7
season	15.1	15.0		105.9	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.8		106.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	15.2	17.7	14.2	15.6
DET	18.1	13.6	11.1	15.8	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Morrow	10	10	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.08	-1	-13	12	12.7	16.0	-3.28	14.8	14.5	0.30
Jerian Grant	44	46	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-15	16	16.0	15.3	0.77	14.8	14.3	0.48
Robin Lopez	67	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-13	12	15.2	16.7	-1.48	14.5	14.6	-0.14
Paul Zipser	59	59	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-12	10	16.0	15.1	0.93	16.4	11.6	4.73
Isaiah Canaan	4	3	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-10	6	19.5	15.5	4.04	18.0	14.4	3.58
Michael Carter-Williams	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.04	-5	-9	4	15.2	15.8	-0.57	14.4	14.6	-0.13
Jimmy Butler	76	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-9	4	15.8	14.9	0.92	14.5	14.7	-0.19
Bobby Portis	49	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-10	6	16.3	14.9	1.39	15.0	14.0	1.00
Nikola Mirotic	36	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-7	0	15.5	15.7	-0.17	13.5	15.2	-1.69
Cameron Payne	47	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	-3	-8	14.9	16.3	-1.42	14.1	15.0	-0.92
Cristiano Felicio	28	26	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.05	-15	1	-16	16.7	15.2	1.48	15.1	14.3	0.75
Denzel Valentine	34	35	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.05	-16	2	-18	14.9	16.0	-1.17	11.6	16.2	-4.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	35	35	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.09	16	-2	18	12.2	15.9	-3.67	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Tobias Harris	56	56	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.03	14	0	14	14.5	14.5	-0.03	15.5	15.8	-0.32
Aron Baynes	35	37	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	2	10	16.0	13.7	2.27	15.4	15.8	-0.33
Jon Leuer	64	63	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	5	4	14.6	14.5	0.09	15.9	15.0	0.91
Reggie Jackson	59	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.08	10	4	6	15.3	13.3	2.01	16.0	15.0	1.03
Andre Drummond	60	58	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	10	-6	13.9	15.6	-1.73	15.8	15.4	0.33
Ish Smith	38	36	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	7	0	13.6	15.2	-1.58	14.6	16.3	-1.69
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	71	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	11	-8	14.4	15.1	-0.73	15.5	16.1	-0.66
Marcus Morris	60	58	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	19	-24	15.7	12.5	3.21	16.1	14.9	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.78,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 69, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
GSW 93, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.92,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.4%
MIA 94, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,1	93.3%