NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	93		Excitement	5.5 [695]		MVP	Chris Mullin (GSW): +20.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	4.1 [398]		LVP	Joe Smith (GSW): -18.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mullin	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.15	0.06	0.01	11	86%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.02	8	82%	0.14	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Donyell Marshall	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Ray Owes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Todd Fuller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mark Price	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Latrell Sprewell	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.05	0.05	21	50%	-0.06	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Joe Smith	-0.19	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.09	-0.08	0.02	11	50%	-0.04	4	-0.14	4	25%	-0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.02	12	66%	0.17	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.03
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.00	0.05	16	75%	0.17	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.02
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	7	50%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Heal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	0.05	16	59%	0.02	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.5	25.2	15.5	22.4	2.5	31.3	127.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +12.2%

MIN +11.1%

MIN +24.2%

GSW -1.3%

MIN +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIN	NBA	GSW	MIN	NBA
this game	15.0	16.0	15.6	100.0	116.1	104.4
season	15.0	15.5		104.4	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.3	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	14.3	15.9	15.9	15.0
MIN	15.4	17.8	17.7	13.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd Fuller	12	13	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.05	6	-21	27	12.9	15.3	-2.37	17.6	15.7	1.89
B.J. Armstrong	54	53	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-14	13	15.2	14.7	0.45	14.8	17.6	-2.87
Andrew DeClercq	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	10.0	15.2	-5.20	13.8	16.1	-2.31
Donald Royal	61	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.16	-11	-4	-7	16.0	13.1	2.87	15.7	16.4	-0.70
Donyell Marshall	22	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-12	9	11.7	16.0	-4.32	18.2	15.3	2.96
Ray Owes	12	12	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-8	1	15.9	14.8	1.08	15.4	16.1	-0.66
Chris Mullin	74	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	-2	-11	15.6	12.5	3.08	15.7	17.1	-1.40
Mark Price	31	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-7	-1	13.6	15.7	-2.05	19.0	14.3	4.71
Latrell Sprewell	79	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.00	-14	-1	-13	15.4	12.7	2.67	15.5	18.7	-3.27
Joe Smith	76	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	-2	-11	15.2	14.2	0.98	15.7	17.2	-1.53
Bimbo Coles	40	41	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	-3	-9	14.6	15.2	-0.62	16.2	15.8	0.46

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	45	44	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.04	24	-9	33	14.1	17.7	-3.64	16.3	13.8	2.50
Sam Mitchell	77	77	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.07	24	-9	33	15.9	16.4	-0.47	15.6	12.2	3.37
Cherokee Parks	40	38	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.15	16	-1	17	17.3	15.0	2.26	13.9	15.7	-1.74
Kevin Garnett	72	75	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	7	1	16.0	16.0	-0.01	15.2	14.0	1.21
Doug West	46	45	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	12	-9	16.6	15.4	1.18	14.2	15.7	-1.42
James Robinson	43	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	7	1	15.5	16.4	-0.85	15.0	14.9	0.13
Tom Gugliotta	69	69	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	8	-1	15.4	17.7	-2.26	15.6	13.2	2.33
Shane Heal	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	13.8	16.1	-2.31	10.0	15.2	-5.20
Dean Garrett	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	11.0	16.2	-5.21	10.0	15.2	-5.20
Stojko Vrankovic	12	12	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	23	-31	18.2	15.7	2.50	12.9	15.3	-2.37
Stephon Marbury	52	54	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.06	-5	20	-25	17.5	14.1	3.34	14.5	15.7	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.92,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 94, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.41,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.52,0.47,0.66,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	93.8%
HOU 69, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
CHI 95, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.78,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.4%