NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	6.0 [483]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +33.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Comeback	3.9 [445]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -5.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.01	0.03	9	85%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	86%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	24	53%	0.13	4	-0.11	9	78%	-0.03
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	19	44%	0.02	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.23	0.15	0.05	20	73%	0.38	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.06	-0.02	24	47%	0.13	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	5	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	5	80%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	42%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.8	32.2	16.7	33.5	3.0	38.2	153.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +26.5%

MIA -0.8%

OKC +14.5%

OKC +7.2%

OKC +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	17.0	14.5	15.6	103.3	114.1	102.8
season	15.5	14.7		105.6	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		101.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	17.3	17.3	17.0	17.0
OKC	15.1	12.7	14.0	16.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Anthony	5	5	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-14	17	13.0	17.2	-4.22	14.4	14.5	-0.11
Mario Chalmers	69	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-8	5	16.4	18.9	-2.47	14.7	13.8	0.90
Mike Miller	19	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-5	-1	16.3	17.2	-0.85	12.6	15.1	-2.44
Shane Battier	78	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-5	-1	17.2	15.7	1.51	15.0	11.6	3.45
Dwyane Wade	80	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	17.0	16.6	0.40	14.8	12.4	2.40
Udonis Haslem	54	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	17.6	16.1	1.48	13.9	15.5	-1.63
LeBron James	86	88	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	0	-11	16.9	18.4	-1.49	14.7	10.0	4.70
Chris Bosh	64	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.11	-16	5	-21	17.4	16.0	1.46	14.1	15.3	-1.24

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	55	53	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.24	14	-3	17	15.0	13.8	1.15	17.1	16.9	0.21
Nick Collison	39	40	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.20	13	-2	15	15.1	14.0	1.09	17.1	16.9	0.24
Kevin Durant	89	87	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.13	15	-4	19	14.3	19.7	-5.34	16.9	18.2	-1.32
Russell Westbrook	81	80	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-3	17	14.3	15.6	-1.29	17.1	15.9	1.23
Derek Fisher	47	48	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	5	1	13.9	15.1	-1.20	17.7	16.2	1.43
Kendrick Perkins	47	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	13	-15	14.6	14.4	0.15	17.3	16.7	0.64
Serge Ibaka	53	52	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	14	-17	14.7	14.2	0.51	16.7	17.3	-0.56
Daequan Cook	6	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	15	-19	15.8	14.4	1.43	14.7	17.2	-2.49
James Harden	43	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.15	2	9	-7	14.1	14.9	-0.76	16.1	17.8	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.94,0.98,1	93.7%
HOU 69, NOH 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%
CHA 96, NJN 102	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.92,1,0.98,1,1	93.5%