NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	6.8 [431]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +18.2%
Dallas Mavericks	98		Comeback	5.0 [606]		LVP	Ben Gordon (DET): -13.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15	0.02	0.12	-0.02	15	45%	0.18	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.06
Charlie Villanueva	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	-0.01	12	65%	0.15	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Chris Wilcox	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	75%	0.12	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	14	61%	0.10	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	5	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	11	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.17,-0.21,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	-0.00	11	37%	-0.02	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.01	19	62%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	10	60%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.03	7	82%	0.16	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.05
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.08	-0.04	20	50%	0.20	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.06
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.05	-0.02	8	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	0.05	-0.01	16	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	0.8	25.0	16.8	28.1	2.4	37.5	135.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +9.3%

DAL +17.1%

DAL +10.2%

DAL +14.9%

DET -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	17.2	14.4	15.3	103.3	106.5	106.0
season	16.8	15.2		104.0	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		104.6	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.3	18.7	18.5	15.8	17.2
DAL	15.0	16.5	12.2	14.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-8	11	17.2	17.3	-0.13	15.8	13.9	1.93
Charlie Villanueva	50	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	0	-5	18.7	15.4	3.32	13.9	15.2	-1.29
Ben Wallace	51	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-4	3	16.9	17.7	-0.75	16.0	12.5	3.52
Ben Gordon	61	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	16.6	18.5	-1.88	14.5	14.2	0.35
Chris Wilcox	39	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-1	-3	17.7	16.9	0.75	12.5	16.0	-3.52
Rodney Stuckey	68	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.20	-3	-2	-1	16.9	18.5	-1.60	15.0	12.8	2.17
Chucky Atkins	14	16	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	3	-11	19.9	16.8	3.09	12.2	14.9	-2.64
Tayshaun Prince	74	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	16.8	19.1	-2.29	15.0	11.9	3.13
Richard Hamilton	67	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	1	-7	17.0	17.9	-0.84	13.6	17.0	-3.48

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	86	83	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-3	11	14.6	12.5	2.07	17.2	17.6	-0.35
Drew Gooden	61	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	-1	7	15.2	12.9	2.31	17.0	17.7	-0.73
Jason Kidd	71	70	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-4	13	14.3	15.0	-0.73	16.7	19.0	-2.26
Jason Terry	74	72	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	0	5	14.5	14.1	0.47	17.9	14.6	3.36
Shawn Marion	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-4	13	13.4	15.8	-2.43	18.1	16.1	2.02
Josh Howard	59	58	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.33	-1	6	-7	14.3	14.7	-0.41	16.8	18.1	-1.37
Quinton Ross	3	3	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	3	-1	0.7	14.9	-14.23	4.7	17.7	-13.01
Jose Juan Barea	37	36	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.21	-6	11	-17	15.3	13.8	1.49	17.6	17.0	0.56
Kris Humphries	18	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	12	-19	15.4	14.2	1.26	18.0	17.1	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 86, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.8%
MIA 94, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.96,1,1	93.7%
MIL 95, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.47,0.39,0.28,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.92,1	93.5%