NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	86		Excitement	6.0 [619]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +20.2%
Orlando Magic	91		Comeback	4.0 [490]		LVP	Elton Brand (LAC): -14.0%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	11	57%	0.15	2	-0.08	13	62%	-0.05
Daniel Ewing	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	9	52%	0.00	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Chris Kaman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	13	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	48%	0.00	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Elton Brand	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	13	54%	0.01	6	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.18	0.07	0.04	16	72%	0.22	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.02	0.10	-0.03	15	43%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	11	54%	0.11	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	61%	0.07	6	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	4	30%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	3	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.7	30.3	15.8	29.4	2.5	45.4	153.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +17.7%

ORL +0.9%

ORL +20.9%

ORL +7.9%

ORL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	ORL	NBA	LAC	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	17.6	15.4	100.0	108.3	104.5
season	15.7	15.9		103.3	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	17.7	14.9	17.0	15.8	16.3
ORL	16.6	18.7	18.1	16.9	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Ewing	22	23	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.06	5	-10	15	18.8	15.5	3.35	18.5	17.2	1.25
James Singleton	0	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-2	-1	0.0	16.3	-16.33	5.0	17.7	-12.72
Tim Thomas	55	54	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.22	7	-12	19	16.2	16.5	-0.25	17.4	17.9	-0.56
Aaron Williams	19	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	-2	-1	15.3	16.6	-1.36	18.9	17.1	1.81
Cuttino Mobley	55	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-4	3	14.8	19.1	-4.33	17.4	17.9	-0.50
Quinton Ross	23	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	5	-15	17.3	16.0	1.28	16.9	17.8	-0.88
Elton Brand	75	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-5	5	16.5	15.4	1.10	17.3	19.3	-2.06
Chris Kaman	71	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.31	-5	0	-5	17.0	13.1	3.87	18.4	13.3	5.14
Shaun Livingston	64	62	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	3	-11	15.5	18.9	-3.41	17.2	18.6	-1.44
Corey Maggette	46	43	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.44	-7	2	-9	17.0	15.5	1.50	17.2	18.0	-0.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	63	63	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.42	4	1	3	17.9	16.6	1.27	15.6	18.3	-2.64
Jameer Nelson	62	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-4	13	17.1	19.0	-1.94	15.3	19.4	-4.08
Trevor Ariza	60	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	1	3	18.0	16.5	1.44	16.0	17.2	-1.22
Dwight Howard	67	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-1	7	17.3	18.7	-1.42	15.6	19.4	-3.77
Darko Milicic	35	35	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	4	-3	19.4	16.3	3.13	17.3	15.6	1.72
Keith Bogans	35	35	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	-1	7	16.2	18.6	-2.40	16.7	16.1	0.61
Carlos Arroyo	23	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	7	-9	18.2	17.3	0.83	18.6	15.5	3.06
Tony Battie	34	34	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	5	-5	17.4	17.7	-0.32	18.1	15.1	3.01
Bo Outlaw	27	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	18.7	17.1	1.61	17.4	15.8	1.53
JJ Redick	14	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	7	-9	14.3	18.2	-3.94	15.9	16.4	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.94,0.98,1	93.8%
WAS 97, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.93,1,1,1	93.8%
OKC 77, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.24,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.78,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%