NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	93		Excitement	5.5 [689]		MVP	Danny Granger (IND): +18.2%
Indiana Pacers	101		Comeback	1.5 [717]		LVP	Kareem Rush (IND): -12.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.03	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.12	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.01	18	51%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Martell Webster	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	16	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Steve Blake	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	0.02	17	39%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.02	0.01	17	67%	0.20	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.04
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	5	62%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	7	59%	0.04	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Travis Diener	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	13	47%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	10	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
David Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.04	-0.05	19	26%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	26.3	15.8	30.5	2.4	33.8	135.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +11.6%

IND +3.3%

IND +3.8%

IND +29.3%

IND +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	IND	NBA	POR	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	14.6	15.4	100.0	109.8	105.7
season	16.7	13.8		105.5	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	18.1	15.8	17.8	14.5	16.6
IND	13.2	14.9	12.2	18.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	45	44	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-11	14	15.6	17.5	-1.86	14.9	14.2	0.66
Sergio Rodriguez	21	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-6	4	18.8	15.9	2.85	14.1	14.7	-0.55
Travis Outlaw	52	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-11	14	16.0	17.2	-1.18	15.7	13.2	2.47
Joel Przybilla	47	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-1	-6	17.1	16.0	1.15	13.6	15.6	-1.98
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-2	-4	17.2	13.9	3.28	14.1	16.4	-2.27
Jarrett Jack	80	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	16.3	17.9	-1.59	14.9	12.6	2.35
Steve Blake	67	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	0	-8	16.3	17.1	-0.77	14.8	13.9	0.94
Martell Webster	79	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.16	-16	8	-24	16.3	18.0	-1.70	14.2	16.6	-2.45

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Granger	81	83	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-5	18	14.8	13.0	1.78	16.4	17.5	-1.05
Kareem Rush	69	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-1	10	14.8	13.9	0.93	16.7	16.0	0.67
Travis Diener	74	74	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.25	6	2	4	14.8	13.7	1.05	16.9	15.1	1.83
Jeff Foster	58	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.24	5	3	2	14.5	14.7	-0.18	15.8	17.9	-2.04
Troy Murphy	60	60	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	1	6	14.2	15.2	-1.05	17.4	15.0	2.37
Marquis Daniels	42	41	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	6	-4	14.9	14.3	0.58	15.9	17.1	-1.17
Shawne Williams	17	16	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.17	-1	9	-10	16.4	14.1	2.27	14.8	16.9	-2.11
David Harrison	30	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	8	-8	13.7	15.0	-1.28	17.5	16.1	1.39
Mike Dunleavy	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	9	-10	13.1	15.2	-2.08	16.2	16.7	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 96, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.4%
DAL 80, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
VAN 88, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%