NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	97		Excitement	5.9 [616]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): +15.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	1.3 [970]		LVP	Chris Duhon (CHI): -21.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrus Thomas	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	2	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Ben Wallace	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	55%	0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.01	17	61%	0.11	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Joe Smith	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	13	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Adrian Griffin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,-0.02	0.11	-0.06	0.07	14	69%	0.13	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.04
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Duhon	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.11	-0.09	0.02	10	43%	-0.06	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.00	10	58%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.05	0.02	19	65%	0.22	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	8	71%	0.12	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.01	15	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	11	32%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.5	29.2	14.8	23.0	1.8	40.7	137.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.4%

POR +2.0%

POR +6.0%

POR +12.3%

POR +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	POR	NBA	CHI	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	16.3	15.4	110.2	111.1	105.7
season	15.0	16.7		102.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	15.8	18.1	14.3	16.0
POR	15.3	16.2	15.5	18.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	7	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	0	-3	16.7	16.0	0.74	15.0	16.4	-1.43
Joe Smith	54	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-1	-1	16.7	14.9	1.78	16.0	16.8	-0.78
Adrian Griffin	27	30	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	2	-7	18.2	15.1	3.10	15.3	16.8	-1.48
Joakim Noah	25	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	6	-15	17.8	15.3	2.41	15.9	16.5	-0.57
Andres Nocioni	76	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-7	11	15.4	20.2	-4.88	16.4	15.7	0.71
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-6	9	15.5	17.6	-2.08	16.4	16.2	0.21
Chris Duhon	82	83	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.45	3	-6	9	16.0	16.5	-0.50	16.6	13.1	3.45
Tyrus Thomas	25	28	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.29	-5	2	-7	14.6	16.6	-2.00	16.0	16.5	-0.52
Thabo Sefolosha	77	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-2	1	15.8	17.9	-2.14	16.9	12.8	4.03

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	67	66	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	-3	9	16.4	16.2	0.14	15.1	18.7	-3.59
Jarrett Jack	70	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-1	5	16.9	14.1	2.79	15.9	16.5	-0.67
Steve Blake	72	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	0	3	16.6	15.2	1.38	15.8	17.5	-1.67
Travis Outlaw	39	37	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.33	-1	4	-5	15.5	16.9	-1.38	16.4	15.8	0.59
Brandon Roy	75	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.44	-6	9	-15	16.9	13.2	3.75	15.3	19.6	-4.30
Joel Przybilla	54	53	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	-1	5	17.3	14.9	2.34	16.5	15.4	1.05
Martell Webster	41	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	0	3	15.0	17.5	-2.52	17.7	14.7	2.93
Sergio Rodriguez	10	9	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.05	7	-4	11	11.6	16.9	-5.31	18.1	15.8	2.31
Channing Frye	19	17	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	6	-9	15.3	16.6	-1.34	18.5	15.5	3.02
Raef LaFrentz	3	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	5	-7	13.3	16.4	-3.09	10.3	16.2	-5.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 103, UTA 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.74,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.84,1	94.3%
SAS 96, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,1	93.8%
NYK 79, MIL 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.97,0.85,0.84,0.73,1	93.7%