NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	94		Excitement	4.3 [938]		MVP	Maurice Evans (ORL): +17.6%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	1.1 [974]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -11.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	10	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	7	64%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.02	0.06	21	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	0.00	0.10	20	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.00	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	21	29%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	0.00	10	75%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	59%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	16	59%	0.10	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	9	44%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	7	37%	0.00	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.06
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	57%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	10	67%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.0	24.6	15.8	24.1	2.6	40.2	132.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +55.9%

POR -5.7%

ORL +7.1%

POR -5.3%

POR -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ORL	NBA	POR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.8	15.4	15.4	105.6	112.2	105.7
season	16.7	15.1		105.5	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.6	17.0	21.1	12.8	16.8
ORL	13.7	17.3	15.9	14.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	38	38	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-11	15	19.5	14.7	4.75	15.2	15.6	-0.44
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.38	10	-17	27	16.7	16.9	-0.13	15.4	15.7	-0.34
James Jones	42	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-14	21	14.6	18.7	-4.13	15.7	15.1	0.64
Joel Przybilla	37	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	3	-13	19.0	15.2	3.85	14.8	15.8	-0.96
Sergio Rodriguez	6	6	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	3	-13	20.5	16.5	3.99	14.8	15.5	-0.62
Brandon Roy	77	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.33	3	-10	13	16.2	20.6	-4.40	15.5	14.5	0.99
Channing Frye	13	13	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	1	-9	18.0	16.6	1.43	17.8	15.0	2.76
Martell Webster	53	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.16	-19	12	-31	18.3	14.6	3.73	15.5	15.2	0.29
Travis Outlaw	56	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	15.0	19.7	-4.69	15.3	15.6	-0.26
Jarrett Jack	51	51	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	-1	-5	15.4	18.6	-3.15	15.1	15.8	-0.77

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	59	58	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.5	15.3	0.14	15.2	19.7	-4.50
Keyon Dooling	50	48	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.33	5	2	3	16.0	14.6	1.37	15.4	18.4	-3.08
Adonal Foyle	20	19	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.00	14	-7	21	17.6	14.8	2.88	17.9	16.5	1.42
Rashard Lewis	72	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.12	7	0	7	14.7	18.2	-3.44	17.1	15.5	1.60
Maurice Evans	48	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	2	3	15.9	14.9	0.99	18.8	14.4	4.42
Brian Cook	21	20	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	0	7	14.6	15.7	-1.10	15.2	17.2	-1.97
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.30	-5	12	-17	16.0	13.3	2.71	16.8	16.7	0.05
Dwight Howard	70	70	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.30	-7	14	-21	14.8	17.6	-2.88	16.5	17.9	-1.42
Carlos Arroyo	40	41	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	5	-3	14.6	16.0	-1.37	18.4	15.4	3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 76, SAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
GSW 99, DAL 121	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
DET 102, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%