NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	5.2 [768]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +16.8%
Houston Rockets	107		Comeback	1.4 [702]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -17.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	12	73%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	67%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.03
Jerome Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
John Crotty	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Michael Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	26	48%	-0.03	2	-0.05	9	100%	0.04
Grant Hill	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.03	0.03	20	53%	0.02	8	-0.19	3	67%	-0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	10	71%	0.17	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	20	54%	0.12	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Walt Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.03	12	54%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	12	66%	0.07	4	-0.07	8	100%	0.03
Devin Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.05	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	8	61%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	28.5	16.3	27.7	2.5	33.6	133.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +34.0%

HOU +5.2%

HOU +10.3%

DET -2.2%

HOU +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	12.8	15.6	15.2	101.0	104.9	101.7
season	14.1	15.4		104.2	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.3		103.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.0	13.9	11.7	12.5	12.8
HOU	13.2	13.8	17.8	18.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	6	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-12	19	6.3	13.2	-6.87	15.3	15.6	-0.25
Terry Mills	34	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-2	-1	12.4	13.0	-0.62	14.8	16.0	-1.21
Grant Hill	76	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-6	7	12.9	12.4	0.52	16.5	12.6	3.93
Christian Laettner	70	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.20	3	-8	11	13.0	12.4	0.58	15.8	15.1	0.68
John Crotty	23	23	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-8	11	12.3	12.9	-0.63	15.6	15.6	0.05
Jud Buechler	18	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-8	11	11.4	13.1	-1.64	19.4	14.7	4.64
Loy Vaught	11	12	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	7	-19	15.3	12.5	2.78	10.2	16.3	-6.03
Jerry Stackhouse	85	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	1	-7	13.0	11.7	1.31	15.1	17.8	-2.64
Lindsey Hunter	78	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	3	-11	12.9	12.3	0.63	15.6	15.6	-0.05
Jerome Williams	65	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	12.7	12.9	-0.15	15.7	15.3	0.38
Michael Curry	39	40	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	4	-13	13.1	12.6	0.55	14.6	16.2	-1.51

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Thomas	68	66	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-4	13	15.4	15.9	-0.47	13.1	12.3	0.77
Hakeem Olajuwon	42	42	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-10	25	15.6	15.5	0.13	14.2	11.8	2.35
Shandon Anderson	94	95	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	-3	11	15.6	14.7	0.89	12.8	13.3	-0.58
Cuttino Mobley	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	15.7	15.1	0.61	12.7	13.0	-0.28
Steve Francis	64	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	3	-1	16.0	14.9	1.03	12.4	13.4	-1.01
Bryce Drew	38	38	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	2	1	14.9	16.0	-1.03	13.4	12.4	1.01
Walt Williams	37	36	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	10	-15	15.1	15.8	-0.77	11.8	13.4	-1.58
Devin Gray	6	5	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	8	-11	15.7	15.6	0.10	12.6	12.8	-0.20
Matt Bullard	34	35	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	9	-13	15.9	15.4	0.47	12.3	13.1	-0.77
Kelvin Cato	51	51	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	9	-13	15.5	15.6	-0.16	12.6	13.0	-0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.62,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CHA 86, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CLE 95, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.1%