NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	101		Excitement	9.5 [81]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +46.6%
Golden State Warriors	106		Comeback	5.6 [361]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): -30.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.00	11	67%	0.28	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.05
Danny Granger	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	13	62%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jermaine O'Neal	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	19	60%	0.20	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.05
Marquis Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	8	75%	0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Diener	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.03	7	43%	0.00	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	8	44%	-0.02	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.56,0.47	0.47	0.13	0.33	-0.00	22	62%	0.49	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	16	63%	0.18	4	-0.12	11	45%	-0.14
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.05	0.00	2	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	8	58%	0.07	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	19	35%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.00	15	26%	-0.22	3	-0.09	5	20%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	32.3	14.8	29.2	2.7	32.8	136.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -22.2%

IND -3.4%

GSW +60.0%

GSW +20.5%

IND -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	GSW	NBA	IND	GSW	NBA
this game	12.8	14.0	15.4	94.4	98.1	105.7
season	13.8	13.5		104.5	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.2		107.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	11.7	11.6	15.2	12.9	12.8
GSW	16.0	12.8	12.0	15.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	34	33	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.05	-1	-4	3	13.1	12.7	0.49	12.7	14.5	-1.79
Marquis Daniels	62	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.13	-9	4	-13	12.3	13.6	-1.28	13.1	15.2	-2.08
Troy Murphy	25	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	1	-7	13.8	12.5	1.29	12.6	14.4	-1.84
Travis Diener	25	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.12	-12	7	-19	13.3	12.7	0.61	12.0	14.5	-2.48
Jamaal Tinsley	82	84	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.48	7	-12	19	12.7	13.3	-0.61	14.5	12.0	2.48
Jermaine O'Neal	82	82	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-6	7	12.5	13.8	-1.29	14.4	12.6	1.84
Mike Dunleavy	94	94	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-7	9	12.5	15.2	-2.75	14.0	13.9	0.13
Danny Granger	82	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	-3	1	13.1	11.8	1.27	14.2	13.1	1.09
Kareem Rush	49	49	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	0	-5	13.4	12.3	1.10	15.5	12.7	2.74

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	26	26	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.45	9	-4	13	13.0	14.3	-1.23	12.7	12.9	-0.21
Andris Biedrins	28	29	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.50	4	1	3	16.7	13.0	3.75	11.9	13.1	-1.21
Baron Davis	88	88	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.49	4	1	3	14.0	14.0	-0.03	13.1	11.7	1.37
Monta Ellis	93	92	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	0	5	14.2	12.3	1.90	13.2	10.5	2.73
Stephen Jackson	95	95	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.28	5	0	5	14.0	14.1	-0.12	12.8	12.8	-0.02
Austin Croshere	38	38	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.18	11	-6	17	12.8	14.6	-1.74	12.1	13.2	-1.14
Kelenna Azubuike	41	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	2	1	13.6	14.2	-0.62	12.3	13.1	-0.84
CJ Watson	18	17	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.08	3	2	1	13.1	14.2	-1.10	11.2	13.1	-1.88
Mickael Pietrus	51	51	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	4	-3	13.3	14.5	-1.21	13.3	12.4	0.96
Al Harrington	62	60	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	0.06	-20	25	-45	14.5	13.3	1.20	13.2	12.3	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.44,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.45,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 94, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.82,1	92.4%
HOU 95, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.85,1	92.0%
SEA 87, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.11,0.28,0.57,0.58,1	91.6%