NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	94		Excitement	7.6 [302]		MVP	Rodney Buford (MEM): +20.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	98		Comeback	9.1 [47]		LVP	Vlade Divac (SAC): -39.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	5	69%	0.16	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Lawrence Funderburke	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.07	0.02	19	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.02	7	55%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Scot Pollard	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	7	50%	-0.12	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.07
Mike Bibby	-0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	19	48%	-0.02	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.03
Vlade Divac	-0.40	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.4	-0.20	-0.22	-0.02	11	40%	-0.12	6	-0.28	8	50%	-0.09

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	16	66%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.10	0.01	11	58%	0.16	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Will Solomon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.16,-0.06,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.08	-0.01	23	40%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Grant Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	37%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	8	62%	-0.01	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.06
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.3	16.4	21.5	2.5	36.5	130.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +54.5%

SAC -8.5%

SAC -20.2%

MEM +26.8%

SAC -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	15.6	95.9	99.0	102.3
season	14.2	15.7		106.6	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		103.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	10.7	14.8	15.8	16.0	14.2
MEM	15.4	14.6	14.2	16.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Jackson	40	39	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.30	-7	3	-10	15.4	13.3	2.05	16.0	14.4	1.58
Hedo Turkoglu	30	32	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.11	-1	-3	2	13.0	14.7	-1.72	15.7	14.8	0.87
Lawrence Funderburke	16	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-1	-2	16.4	13.7	2.64	16.9	14.7	2.29
Vlade Divac	73	74	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.49	5	-9	14	13.9	14.8	-0.91	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Scot Pollard	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.49	0	-4	4	14.4	13.4	0.99	15.4	14.3	1.09
Peja Stojakovic	88	87	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	0	-4	14.1	14.4	-0.26	14.7	17.6	-2.86
Doug Christie	85	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	1	-6	14.4	12.7	1.70	14.7	17.2	-2.49
Mike Bibby	84	86	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.55	-5	1	-6	13.4	18.9	-5.48	14.5	19.1	-4.61

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	71	70	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.55	1	3	-2	14.3	17.1	-2.84	13.8	15.0	-1.17
Ike Austin	57	54	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.64	-2	6	-8	14.9	15.3	-0.46	14.1	14.2	-0.12
Rodney Buford	94	93	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-1	6	15.1	14.4	0.71	14.4	10.0	4.39
Pau Gasol	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-1	6	14.7	15.9	-1.19	14.6	13.2	1.39
Shane Battier	75	75	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.48	-1	5	-6	15.1	15.0	0.09	13.8	15.3	-1.43
Will Solomon	8	8	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.03	7	-3	10	12.1	15.3	-3.20	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Brevin Knight	41	41	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.26	12	-8	20	15.4	14.8	0.59	14.8	13.7	1.06
Tony Massenburg	41	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.23	4	0	4	15.7	14.6	1.04	14.4	13.9	0.50
Nick Anderson	35	33	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.14	-1	5	-6	15.8	14.7	1.08	14.2	14.2	-0.02
Grant Long	6	5	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	14	-24	23.2	14.5	8.62	7.6	14.5	-6.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 101, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.44,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.37,0.19,0.21,0.35,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.45,0.74,1	92.4%
SEA 87, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.11,0.28,0.57,0.58,1	91.8%
CHI 103, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.29,0.24,0.73,1	91.7%