NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	103		Excitement	9.5 [98]		MVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): +67.1%
Orlando Magic	105		Comeback	6.1 [73]		LVP	Tobias Harris (ORL): -17.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.36	0.03	0.33	0.01	10	52%	0.39	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.04	0.19	-0.01	11	52%	0.26	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.03
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.01	10	79%	0.15	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	12	52%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Tony Snell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	9	45%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	6	29%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Aaron Brooks	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.14	0.01	-0.14	0.00	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.37,0.67	0.67	0.06	0.59	-0.02	14	68%	0.77	4	-0.09	6	67%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.14	0.00	3	70%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.01	16	61%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	65%	0.12	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	14	55%	0.09	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	60%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	13	27%	-0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.6	26.3	15.8	29.3	1.7	39.2	136.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +51.0%

CHI -22.4%

CHI -9.0%

ORL +24.6%

ORL +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.1	107.3	109.4	104.2
season	15.5	14.9		105.4	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.2		105.9	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	15.0	16.8	15.5	15.6
ORL	15.5	13.8	13.2	15.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	54	53	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-5	8	14.9	16.4	-1.44	14.9	13.8	1.07
Mike Dunleavy	41	41	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.05	1	-3	4	17.0	14.5	2.58	14.5	14.3	0.19
Taj Gibson	58	59	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-8	14	15.3	15.9	-0.62	14.6	14.2	0.43
Derrick Rose	41	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	1	-4	14.5	16.3	-1.81	15.1	13.9	1.20
Aaron Brooks	48	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.17	3	-5	8	17.0	14.1	2.90	13.7	15.2	-1.58
Kirk Hinrich	33	33	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-5	8	13.1	16.9	-3.78	15.5	13.9	1.61
Tony Snell	2	3	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	0	-2	6.5	15.8	-9.27	6.7	14.7	-8.01
Joakim Noah	63	63	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.26	-12	10	-22	15.0	16.8	-1.81	14.9	13.5	1.44
Pau Gasol	68	68	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.63	0	-2	2	16.0	14.6	1.41	13.6	16.3	-2.67
Jimmy Butler	73	72	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.51	-11	9	-20	16.4	13.1	3.27	14.0	15.6	-1.60

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Victor Oladipo	83	83	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.45	8	-6	14	14.5	14.0	0.49	15.0	19.2	-4.23
Elfrid Payton	80	79	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.44	5	-3	8	13.9	17.0	-3.09	15.8	14.6	1.13
Aaron Gordon	45	44	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.50	0	2	-2	13.1	15.6	-2.52	16.2	15.0	1.25
Nikola Vucevic	74	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.50	-2	4	-6	13.9	16.4	-2.51	16.0	14.2	1.84
Evan Fournier	39	41	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.51	-4	6	-10	14.6	14.3	0.23	16.3	15.0	1.34
Channing Frye	8	8	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	-2	6	17.5	14.1	3.35	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Dewayne Dedmon	49	49	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	2	-2	15.7	13.1	2.55	15.1	16.1	-0.96
Tobias Harris	58	59	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.04	-1	3	-4	15.6	12.7	2.93	14.8	16.8	-1.97
Andrew Nicholson	44	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.13	0	2	-2	14.0	14.8	-0.83	15.9	15.3	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.29,0.24,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.27,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.56,0.44,0.6,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.33,0.58,1	91.9%
SAC 94, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.11,0.11,0.29,0.82,1	91.7%
LAL 106, GSW 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.32,0.58,1	91.6%