NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	79		Excitement	5.1 [768]		MVP	Channing Frye (POR): +12.2%
Portland Trail Blazers	89		Comeback	1.6 [955]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -16.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.03	-0.00	18	53%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Delonte West	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.02	-0.06	6	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	56%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Mickael Gelabale	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.05	20	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Chris Wilcox	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	5	36%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	6	86%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	0.02	0.04	11	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.09	0.02	-0.08	23	35%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.03	12	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	7	25%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	10	9%	-0.16	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	30.1	18.8	29.1	2.8	28.3	135.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +20.6%

SEA -2.9%

POR +14.3%

POR +17.9%

POR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	POR	NBA	SEA	POR	NBA
this game	14.8	18.7	15.4	91.9	103.5	105.7
season	14.5	16.7		99.1	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.0		106.1	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	12.8	16.2	14.2	17.0	14.8
POR	17.2	19.8	15.8	23.0	18.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Gelabale	6	5	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-11	12	15.8	14.8	1.07	17.2	18.7	-1.54
Wally Szczerbiak	52	51	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-14	18	15.4	14.0	1.43	18.7	18.5	0.23
Kurt Thomas	47	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-12	14	13.5	16.5	-2.97	18.6	18.7	-0.15
Delonte West	4	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-6	2	19.7	14.6	5.15	19.4	18.6	0.80
Earl Watson	58	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-12	14	13.9	16.8	-2.94	18.4	19.1	-0.68
Chris Wilcox	55	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-6	2	13.8	16.7	-2.93	18.1	19.6	-1.55
Jeff Green	34	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-6	2	16.5	13.7	2.80	20.3	17.5	2.85
Kevin Durant	69	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-5	0	14.2	17.5	-3.28	18.4	19.5	-1.09
Luke Ridnour	28	29	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.05	-12	2	-14	16.8	13.9	2.94	19.1	18.4	0.68
Nick Collison	39	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	2	-14	16.5	13.5	2.97	18.7	18.6	0.15
Damien Wilkins	38	38	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.07	-18	8	-26	14.6	15.0	-0.46	18.3	19.0	-0.70

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Roy	56	56	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	2	6	18.6	18.8	-0.28	14.2	16.1	-1.94
Channing Frye	39	39	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.15	7	3	4	19.4	18.0	1.34	16.3	13.6	2.74
LaMarcus Aldridge	48	48	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	17.6	19.9	-2.28	13.3	16.8	-3.50
James Jones	44	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	2	6	20.2	17.0	3.13	16.5	13.2	3.35
Steve Blake	39	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	3	4	17.3	19.7	-2.41	14.0	15.6	-1.61
Jarrett Jack	51	50	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	8	-6	20.1	16.5	3.56	15.6	13.8	1.77
Martell Webster	42	43	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.15	2	8	-6	17.0	20.2	-3.13	13.2	16.5	-3.35
Joel Przybilla	51	52	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	7	-4	18.7	18.6	0.09	13.9	16.3	-2.41
Sergio Rodriguez	26	26	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.04	3	7	-4	18.0	18.9	-0.93	16.2	14.2	1.94
Travis Outlaw	34	33	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	6	-2	19.2	18.3	0.87	16.8	13.6	3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 74, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.7,0.74,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
PHI 96, TOR 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.3%
NYK 100, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.0%