NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	76		Excitement	5.8 [628]		MVP	Martell Webster (POR): +20.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	88		Comeback	2.1 [447]		LVP	Travis Outlaw (POR): -17.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.04	8	100%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hilton Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	19	48%	0.06	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Jannero Pargo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	7	21%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	0.01	15	37%	-0.07	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.06	0.09	-0.05	8	54%	0.20	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	5	100%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.11	0.01	0.07	17	67%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	11	36%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	7	36%	-0.02	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	12	27%	-0.11	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.5	27.1	15.5	27.2	1.8	26.2	128.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.8%

POR +11.3%

NOH -0.5%

POR +14.3%

POR +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	POR	NBA	NOH	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	19.4	15.4	92.7	108.6	105.7
season	15.9	16.7		109.6	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		106.1	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	13.6	16.2	18.5	16.1	15.9
POR	17.1	19.8	19.4	21.8	19.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jannero Pargo	15	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-8	4	15.8	16.0	-0.17	15.9	20.2	-4.31
Julian Wright	24	22	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-7	2	15.2	16.2	-0.97	18.2	19.9	-1.64
Bobby Jackson	44	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	-3	-6	15.3	16.7	-1.44	17.9	20.9	-2.90
Hilton Armstrong	23	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-7	2	16.7	15.6	1.11	19.7	19.3	0.42
Morris Peterson	38	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-9	6	16.7	15.3	1.44	20.9	17.9	2.90
Rasual Butler	58	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	16.2	15.2	0.97	19.9	18.2	1.64
Tyson Chandler	72	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-4	-4	16.4	12.7	3.69	19.9	16.0	3.90
David West	69	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-1	-10	15.2	19.8	-4.64	18.8	22.8	-4.01
Chris Paul	67	67	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-4	-4	16.0	15.8	0.17	20.2	15.9	4.31

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	46	46	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.23	7	5	2	20.0	18.7	1.29	17.7	13.7	3.90
Brandon Roy	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	2	8	20.0	17.5	2.55	15.7	16.7	-1.04
Channing Frye	25	26	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	2	8	19.3	19.5	-0.14	15.7	16.0	-0.30
James Jones	39	39	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.11	8	4	4	20.5	18.4	2.11	16.0	15.9	0.17
Jarrett Jack	48	49	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	5	2	19.7	19.0	0.71	15.2	17.1	-1.88
Steve Blake	34	35	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	4	4	19.2	19.6	-0.32	16.4	15.6	0.80
Travis Outlaw	52	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	9	-6	19.1	20.0	-0.90	15.9	16.0	-0.04
Martell Webster	46	47	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	9	-6	18.9	20.1	-1.17	16.0	15.9	0.14
Sergio Rodriguez	20	21	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	10	-8	17.5	20.0	-2.55	16.7	15.7	1.04
Raef LaFrentz	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	10	-8	18.4	20.1	-1.69	14.2	17.1	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.97,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 90, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.97,0.92,1	94.2%
DEN 91, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.97,0.93,1	93.6%
TOR 85, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.5%