NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	85		Excitement	6.9 [441]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +10.0%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.9 [356]		LVP	Chris Childs (TOR): -16.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	13	53%	0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Jerome Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	15	46%	-0.07	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.02
Morris Peterson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	9	25%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Vince Carter	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	21	42%	-0.09	3	-0.07	10	80%	0.01
Chris Childs	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.01	23	50%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	9	67%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	9	55%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	17	33%	-0.13	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	22.5	16.3	24.6	2.6	37.0	126.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.5%

TOR -1.0%

DEN +11.0%

TOR -2.0%

DEN +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	15.2	15.6	90.4	102.1	102.3
season	16.2	16.1		100.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.6		105.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.7	17.7	15.6	13.0	15.4
DEN	18.6	13.6	13.8	15.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	26	25	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-14	17	16.2	15.2	1.03	15.2	15.2	0.07
Hakeem Olajuwon	30	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-9	7	16.1	15.2	0.91	15.0	15.3	-0.28
Tracy Murray	23	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.09	-1	-10	9	15.1	15.5	-0.42	14.3	15.4	-1.11
Morris Peterson	64	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-5	-1	15.0	16.4	-1.45	15.4	14.7	0.78
Chris Childs	45	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	-1	-9	15.5	15.4	0.04	14.2	16.1	-1.87
Keon Clark	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	15.4	15.5	-0.05	15.5	14.9	0.56
Vince Carter	76	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-2	-7	15.3	15.9	-0.62	15.5	13.8	1.74
Alvin Williams	87	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.17	-12	1	-13	15.3	16.9	-1.52	15.2	15.5	-0.33
Antonio Davis	76	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	2	-15	15.7	14.4	1.24	15.4	14.3	1.10

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	91	92	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	2	7	15.1	18.0	-2.90	15.4	17.0	-1.59
James Posey	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.03	12	-1	13	15.1	15.5	-0.47	15.1	16.3	-1.19
Avery Johnson	49	48	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	2	7	14.4	16.0	-1.59	15.3	15.6	-0.36
Raef LaFrentz	67	66	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	4	3	15.0	15.7	-0.72	14.7	17.3	-2.62
Ryan Bowen	37	37	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.23	3	8	-5	16.6	14.3	2.27	15.8	15.2	0.60
Isaiah Rider	35	35	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	9	-7	16.1	14.6	1.47	16.4	14.9	1.47
George McCloud	58	58	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	3	5	14.4	16.4	-1.99	15.1	16.0	-0.90
Scott Williams	27	28	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.07	4	7	-3	15.7	15.0	0.72	17.3	14.7	2.62
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	36	36	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	10	-9	15.6	14.9	0.68	15.6	15.3	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.89,0.96,1,1,1	93.7%
NOH 76, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.88,0.87,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	93.5%
MIL 92, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,1,1	93.1%