NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	97		Excitement	6.3 [534]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +22.1%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	2.1 [941]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (LAL): -11.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jodie Meeks	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	3	100%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.02	5	83%	0.13	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.05
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	17	51%	0.09	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.03	19	61%	0.15	4	-0.14	8	75%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.12	3	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	11	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.14	0.06	18	71%	0.33	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.09	0.03	18	73%	0.32	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	11	59%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.01	5	90%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	13	46%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	30.6	17.7	29.2	3.0	32.2	143.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.0%

LAL -3.7%

MIA +3.9%

MIA +22.8%

LAL -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	17.3	15.4	111.5	124.4	104.1
season	14.9	15.7		106.0	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		102.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.3	15.4	15.5	16.0	16.0
MIA	16.2	15.9	21.6	16.0	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jodie Meeks	20	21	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.10	4	-14	18	17.2	15.7	1.50	15.3	17.9	-2.61
Steve Blake	26	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.15	-2	-8	6	16.7	15.8	0.87	17.0	17.4	-0.43
Antawn Jamison	44	44	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-6	2	16.9	15.2	1.70	17.0	17.5	-0.48
Dwight Howard	77	75	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-9	8	16.2	14.6	1.63	16.5	22.4	-5.86
Steve Nash	61	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-2	-6	15.8	16.7	-0.87	17.4	17.0	0.43
Metta World Peace	64	63	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.09	-12	2	-14	15.9	16.3	-0.41	18.1	14.9	3.26
Kobe Bryant	67	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	4	-18	15.7	17.2	-1.50	17.9	15.3	2.61
Earl Clark	76	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.21	-13	3	-16	15.5	20.1	-4.63	17.4	16.1	1.31

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	53	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-1	12	17.1	17.5	-0.32	15.9	16.3	-0.41
Dwyane Wade	70	73	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	3	4	16.5	20.5	-3.99	16.1	15.8	0.31
LeBron James	64	64	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	3	4	18.0	15.2	2.79	16.1	15.9	0.18
Ray Allen	38	36	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	6	-2	17.0	17.5	-0.46	16.3	15.9	0.44
Norris Cole	35	34	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	6	-2	16.9	17.5	-0.67	16.3	15.9	0.41
Chris Bosh	60	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	6	-2	17.0	17.9	-0.90	16.6	14.7	1.92
Mario Chalmers	51	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	4	2	17.5	16.9	0.67	15.9	16.3	-0.41
Joel Anthony	8	7	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	6	-2	24.9	16.5	8.40	15.4	16.1	-0.67
Chris Andersen	24	23	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.04	3	7	-4	15.7	17.9	-2.20	16.2	16.0	0.17
Rashard Lewis	6	7	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	8	-6	18.5	17.2	1.34	12.6	16.3	-3.78
Udonis Haslem	21	23	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	17.7	17.1	0.54	15.3	16.3	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.89,0.96,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	93.8%
TOR 85, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.93,0.86,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.7%
NOP 107, HOU 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.29,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.99,1	93.6%